Ideally, a general manager should be in agony right about now.

In a perfect world, it would be just about impossible to figure out how to put together your initial 53-man roster. There would be intense competition at every level. Every position would be stuffed to the gills with future stars. Your veterans would be sharpening your young players, and your young players would be pushing your veterans at every step.

So that’s where I hope Brian Gutekunst finds himself today. I hope he’s spending the next day or so pacing his office, feverishly writing and rewriting on a whiteboard strewn with notes and lines, working the phones to drum up interest from would-be trading partners, burning through carafes of coffee like it’s water. I hope he has some kind of physical pain over each and every cut. I hope it’s hard on him, not because I wish him to be in actual anguish, but because that means the Packers have a good roster, one that requires him to cut good players to make way for great ones.

The reality is not quite that. There are some positions on the 2023 Packers were things seem legitimately clouded, but generally speaking, the roster does not seem all that different today than it was for our first post-draft prediction. There’s some movement toward the bottom of the roster due to injury and unexpected development; Tyler Davis and Luke Tenuta are no longer factors at their positions, and I doubt anybody seriously predicted Carrington Valentine’s ascension. But by and large, we’re about where we expected to be.

That’s not to say there aren’t some surprises or hard choices in this year’s initial 53. There are. There always are, just as there will be movement on the roster throughout the year.

In any case, here’s my last best guess at what the Packers’ roster will look like as of 4 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday.

Quarterbacks (2) - Jordan Love, Sean Clifford

There is no position less surprising. Jordan Love is the starter, Sean Clifford is the backup, and Alex McGough, barring an unexpected veteran signing, will hang out on the practice squad. He’s going to need a new number, though. With Anders Carlson likely making the roster, McGough’s 17 will be occupied if he returns on the practice squad. That’s the closest thing to an interesting nugget I can muster at quarterback.

Running backs/fullbacks (4) - Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Josiah Deguara, Henry Pearson

I don’t think there’s any reason to keep three running backs. Emanuel Wilson, though certifiably good in the preseason, isn’t anything especially noteworthy as a prospect and should find his way to the practice squad. The same is true of Patrick Taylor, whose special teams acumen remains of interest.

Speaking of special teams, Henry Pearson’s play there can’t be ignored. He logged 22 snaps on special teams over four games, including significant time with top-end units. I think he offers more value there than Taylor, and with Deguara splitting time between the backfield and his tight end duties, Pearson could find some use as a blocking back.

Wide receivers (6) - Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Samori Toure, Dontaviyon Wicks, Malik Heath

The divide here is as clear at this position as at any other on the roster: Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed have been locks since camp opened. Beyond that, it’s been a free-for-all, and the picture was complicated by Grant DuBose’s injury. Had he been healthy, he might have taken Samori Toure’s spot, but Toure buys himself a little more time with his extended slot performance this summer and DuBose probably ends up on the practice squad. Dontayvion Wicks and Malik Heath are new goons for Matt LaFleur. As much as I have enjoyed the idea of Bo Melton becoming something, that dream is dead.

Tight ends (3) - Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, Austin Allen

The only surprise here is that there are only three true tight ends on the roster. Musgrave and Kraft were obviously going to make it, and Allen is the beneficiary of truly terrible injury timing for Tyler Davis, whose career may be in jeopardy.

Offensive line (9) - David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, Jon Runyan, Zach Tom, Yosh Nijman, Royce Newman, Sean Rhyan, Rasheed Walker

There are so many storylines on the offensive line. Bakhtiari’s knee! The center competition! The rise of Rasheed Walker! Take your pick. It’s been an unusually entertaining summer on the offensive line.

This prediction is a reflection of what I think the Packers will do, not what they should do. If I was the general manager, I would be shopping Yosh Nijman hard, and if I could get at least a third for him, I’d pull the trigger.

You know you’re probably moving on from Bakhtiari next year, and Nijman seems maxed out as a spot-starting swing tackle, which is valuable but hard to justify re-signing on a rebuilding team. If the Packers plan to spend in free agency next spring (and their cap situation seems to suggest they will), it’s unlikely Nijman will net you a compensatory pick. I’d get what I could for him now and have the asset in hand. 

But if the Packers hang onto Nijman, and I think they will, this group is pretty simple, if a little light inside. Ideally, you’d have one dedicated guard or center backup that you feel good about, and right now they don’t really have that unless they start moving guys from other positions (i.e. Zach Tom to guard or center in the event of an injury). But tackle depth gets you that flexibility, and whatever the Packers do, I think they’re heading into 2023 feeling about as good about their offensive line as they possibly could.

Defensive line (6) - Kenny Clark, Devante Wyatt, T.J. Slaton, Colby Wooden, Karl Brooks, Jonathan Ford

Here’s a position where I think the Packers could look outside the organization. They have five well-established players with a clear path to the roster, and also Jonathan Ford. I’m not really sure what he is as a player, and I don’t think the preseason gave us any answers. If a big-bodied guy with athletic upside popped onto the waiver wire, the Packers might give him a look. However, that analogy is also a little like saying “If I saw $20 on the sidewalk, I’d pick it up.” They’ll probably default to keeping him around, which is fine because he’s the sixth of their six defensive linemen.

Edge rushers (5) - Rashan Gary, Preston Smith, Lukas Van Ness, JJ Enagbare, Justin Hollins

You can make the numbers work to get Brenton Cox to the roster here if you really want to, but I don’t think it makes sense. He doesn’t play special teams (just 12 special teams snaps over three preseason games) and would be firmly at the bottom of the depth chart. You’d be keeping him as a redshirt player, at most, which is not without precedent in Green Bay (Caleb Jones, Rasheed Walker), but even next year he’s going to be no higher than fourth on the depth chart. 

Inside linebacker (5) - De’Vondre Campbell, Quay Walker, Isaiah McDuffie, Tariq Carpenter, Eric Wilson

You have to find special teamers somewhere, and it looks like it’ll be at inside linebacker. Three of the five players I see the Packers keeping here are primarily special teams contributors. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Packers keep only one of Carpenter or Wilson, but given who I stuck with at safety, I feel comfortable with this group.

Cornerbacks (5) - Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, Keisean Nixon, Carrington Valentine, Corey Ballentine

In a normal year, Eric Stokes starting the season on the PUP list would complicate the cornerback group quite substantially. That’s not the case in 2023, where Carrington Valentine gives the Packers enough flexibility to keep Corey Ballentine as an exclusive special teams contributor. Ballentine may be the first out the door when (if?) Stokes returns, but until then the Packers have a solid cornerback room.

Safeties (5) - Darnell Savage, Rudy Ford, Tarvarius Moore, Dallin Leavitt, Anthony Johnson

I truly have no idea what is going on here, and I don’t know if the Packers do either. On a pre-camp episode of Blue 58, I said the safety room was in a good spot because the Packers had a lot of contenders to start and surely someone would emerge. Well, a month later, nobody really has. I feel confident in saying that Savage and Ford will be on the roster, but it’s guesswork down the depth chart from there. I do think Anthony Johnson has shown more in the preseason than Owens, but again, who knows?

Specialists (3) - Anders Carlson, Matthew Orzech, Pat O’Donnell

I’d prefer Daniel Whelan’s strong leg to O’Donnell’s precision, but I don’t think the Packers do. His work as a holder could help rookie kicker Anders Carlson, who should survive cuts beyond a significant surprise.