Plenty is going to change between now and Week 1. Heck, plenty is going to change between now and the Packers’ first preseason game. The 90 players on the Packers’ roster right now likely won’t be the 90 who line up for their first practice of training camp.

But even with those impending changes, the Packers roster is functionally set. Yes, they could still add veteran help at wide receiver or in the secondary, but the players they’ve got now are more or less the guys they’re going to roll with for 2022. The talent isn’t going to substantively change.

That means we can take a reasonable shot at predicting the Packers’ roster. Yes, it’s a fraught proposition in May, but that’s kind of the point. There’s a lot we won’t get right, but there’s a lot we can know right now, too.

Here’s my best guess at who the Packers will keep for their initial 53-man roster.

Quarterbacks (2): Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love

Analysis: This is pretty much a no brainer. Kurt Benkert is a nice depth piece, but there are plenty of guys like him around. He’s likely headed to the practice squad.

Running Backs (3): Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Tyler Goodson

Analysis: Jones and Dillons are locks, and I like Goodson a little bit better than Patrick Taylor. I think he’s a more dynamic athlete and he’s got better hands. Taylor has practice squad value and I’m sure the Packers would love to stash him there again, if possible. I’m assuming Kylin Hill starts the season on the PUP list, but once he’s healthy the Packers will have an interesting decision to make.

Wide Receivers (7): Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Amari Rodgers, Romeo Doubs, Samori Toure

Analysis: Lazard, Watson, and Cobb are locks to make it, and Watkins isn’t far behind. Rodgers is probably safe, too, given his draft pedigree, but I’m sure the Packers wouldn’t mind if someone made their decision there easy. Doubs would be a lock but for the depth chart ahead of him, though he’ll make it. 

If the Packers want to try to get by with less than seven, Toure probably gets the ax, but I think he’s comfortably ahead of both Juwann Winfree and Malik Taylor. He’s a better athlete than Winfree and a better receiver than Taylor, so the Packers will bet on his special teams acumen and go from there.

Tight Ends (4); Marcedes Lewis, Josiah Deguara, Tyler Davis, Dominique Dafney

Analysis: Working on the assumption that Robert Tonyan starts the season on the PUP list, this is one of the easier groups to forecast. There just isn’t a lot here. It’s not necessarily a bad group, but there’s not a lot of receiving value in the room right now.

Offensive Line (9): David Bakhtiari, Jon Runyan, Josh Myers, Yosh Nijman, Sean Rhyan, Zach Tom, Royce Newman, Cole Van Lanen, Rasheed Walker

Analysis: Nine players is a significant investment, but I think it’s warranted given the talent the Packers have. Elgton Jenkins is another PUP candidate, so that puts off some decisions for the Packers. In the mean time, I think they hang on to 2021 draft pick Cole Van Lanen and 2022 draft pick Rasheed Walker as their depth pieces. They’d probably like to get Walker to the practice squad, but I think he’ll show up in the preseason and make that a tough ask. I think Oregon product George Moore could have a real shot at making the roster over someone like Van Lanen. Van Lanen is a better athlete, but Moore is bigger and I think he’s a better player. 

Defensive Line (5): Kenny Clark, Devonte Wyatt, Dean Lowry, T.J. Slaton, Jarran Reed

Analysis: Five is fewer than I’d like to keep, and I could easily see them going with a sixth over, say, a sixth edge rusher. But Jack Heflin couldn’t find the field last year despite some time on the 53, and 2022 draft pick Jonathan Ford’s scheme fit is really weird. Akial Byers got an $8,000 signing bonus to come aboard as an undrafted free agent, but that doesn’t indicate a roster spot is in his future. I’m open to being wrong here, but it looks like five defensive linemen is the future for the Packers again.

Edge Rushers (6): Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, J.J. Enagbare, Jonathan Garvin, Randy Ramsey, Chauncey Manac

Analysis: Beyond the top four here, I feel like everything is a complete guess. Heck, beyond Smith and Gary, I’m not super sold on anybody here. Garvin was solid in small doses in 2021, but I don’t love him as the Packers’ third edge rusher. Enagbare is kind of in the same boat; he seems like he’s got some nice tools, but I’d hardly call him a lock (though he’s probably pretty close) Randy Ramsey was a special teams darling and has some positional flexibility, while Manac is one of the Packers’ best undrafted free agent prospects.

Linebackers (5): De’Vondre Campbell, Quay Walker, Krys Barnes, Isaiah McDuffie, Tariq Carpenter

Analysis: Five is probably too many, but Carpenter is pretty much just a linebacker in name only (and is currently listed as a safety on the Packers’ roster, for that matter). I think they swap him for Ty Summers and make him into one of their new core special teamers, along with Isaiah McDuffie. Barnes will back up Campbell and Walker as their primary depth piece at the position.

Cornerbacks (5): Jaire Alexander, Rasul Douglas, Eric Stokes, Shermar Jean-Charles, Keisean Nixon

Analysis: No position has a bigger disparity between the top-end talent and, well, everything else than cornerback. The Packers’ top three corners are as good as anybody’s, and probably better. Beyond that, the cupboard is pretty bare. And to be fair, that’s the situation for many if not most NFL teams. Still, I’d expect some serious roster churn here. Jean-Charles is the de facto successor for Chandon Sullivan in the slot, while Keisean Nixon was a core special teamer for the Raiders under Rich Bisaccia.

Safeties (4): Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage, Innis Gaines, Tre Sterling

Analysis: Safety is much like cornerback. The Packers need depth here in a bad way, but they’re hardly unique. 2021 preseason star Innis Gaines gets the nod here, as does 2022 undrafted free agent Tre Sterling, who probably would have been drafted but for an injury-shortened 2021 season at Oklahoma State. 2020 seventh-round pick Vernon Scott is currently on the outside looking in.