We’re entering a crucial period for the young players on the Packers’ roster. Or, more accurately, we’re entering a crucial phase for virtually the entirety of the Packers’ roster, the distinction between players who are young and players who are very young being more or less meaningless.

In any case, the back half of this season is important because it’ll be a crucial part of the evaluation on where these players are heading into next season. Coaches will base their opinions on this year’s rookies by evaluating how they grew from the first half of the season into the second half. For older players heading into the meat of their rookie contracts, the front office needs to evaluate whether or not the player in question is a building block for the future or someone the Packers will need to replace after his rookie contract expires — or perhaps before.

Second-year linebacker Quay Walker is a perfect example of the second category of player. To date, he’s played in 24 games so far in his still-young NFL career, and results have been largely mixed. He’s certainly capable of some great things; when he reads a play well, he hits like a ton of bricks, he’s above average in coverage, and he makes plays on the ball with a regularity that we just haven’t seen from a Packers linebacker in…well, who knows how long. There are downsides, too. He’s inconsistent against the run and his missed tackle rate does leave something to be desired.

Hold that thought rough evaluation in your mind as we consider Fred Warner. The 49ers’ dynamo is one of the best at his position in the league, if not the very best. But Warner, now in his sixth season, was once a young player, too. How did he improve over time?

I can’t speak to the particulars, but here’s how his Pro Football Focus grades have changed over time. On this chart you’ll see the overall defensive grades for each one of Warner’s 100 career games, including playoffs, on the blue line. The red, yellow, and green lines, meanwhile, represent trailing averages for four-, eight-, and 16-game chunks.

Warner has clearly gotten better over time, though the difference between where he is now and where he once was mainly comes down to consistency. Over time, he does post more high-grade games, but the low-graded games also become more and more infrequent, which represents the biggest jump in his average grades. And crucially, the real inflection point in Warner’s grading comes right around the 25-game mark.

Quay Walker, as you’ll remember, has played 24 games so far in his NFL career. Provided he clears the final hurdles in his return from a groin injury, he’ll play his 25th career game on Sunday, meaning he’s entering territory where we really should be seeing what he is as a player. What are we seeing from Walker so far? Well, here are the same trendlines for Walker’s 24 games so far, as graded by PFF.

For Walker and many others on the Packers roster, now’s the time to show real strides. 2023 was always going to be something of an evaluation year. It’s incumbent on the Packers’ up-and-coming core players to make that evaluation as good as it possibly can be.

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