Football isn’t war, but it might be an ecosystem.

“Adapt or die” is the NFL’s hardest and fastest unofficial rule, sorting the contenders from the pretenders every year. Those that adapt — or even get ahead of the innovation curve — survive and thrive. Those that don’t fall behind, and are quickly torn apart by the faster and deadlier among them.

Of course, there are a whole bunch of other reasons you can find yourself as a prey animal on the Serengeti that is a given NFL season. Untimely injuries, a couple of bad bounces, or any number of other uncontrollable factors can send your season into a tailspin. Some of these things might just make you more dangerous to an unwary opponent, though. Pity the team that thinks it’s located an easy December win over a team eliminated from playoff contention thanks to an unlucky string of events in September, only to realize all too late that they’ve stumbled across a wounded and therefore dangerous beast.

I’m torturing this analogy because in this week’s picks I think we see a couple of different kinds of these predator/prey matchups. The Ravens, for instance, are heavy, heavy favorites over the Giants this week, and for good reason. The Ravens have been a hot team all year long, they’ve got an MVP-caliber quarterback, and they’ve got plenty to play for. The Giants, meanwhile, are a hapless lot of misfit toys guided by a coach who’s led his team to just 17 wins in three seasons at the helm. That’s a wounded gazelle if there ever was one.

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