The Power Sweep

View Original

What do the Packers need to fix to be a contender in 2024?

I can envision a future where the Packers end this season hoisting the Lombardi trophy.

I can also envision a bunch of other futures where they end the season, like most teams in most years, on the outside looking in as more successful teams continue their quest toward football’s ultimate prize.

The difference between those competing visions comes down to the Packers bridging the gap between where they are now and where they could be.

Based on their present performance, I think there’s a gap between the Packers and what I’d call the “true” contenders in the NFL. Statistically, you see this gap pretty much across the board. In almost every metric, the Packers rank in the 8-12 range. That’s a really good start, don’t get me wrong! But you can see the Packers are pretty clearly on the outside looking in right now, and closing the gap between where they are and where they want to be will determine the outcome of their season.

The good news on this front — really, great news, in all honesty — is that all the issues the Packers need to correct are very fixable and can be addressed in-season. Though adding more talent in the offseason will be the way to go with some of these fixes long-term, as far as the 2024 season goes, they can still be addressed without major personnel additions.

Here are the four things I think the Packers need to unlock to reach their full potential this year.

Offensive consistency (Difficulty: easy)

The Packers’ offense this year is pretty good and at times has even been great. They can score with anybody…as long as they don’t get in their own way.

Unforced errors have doomed the Packers this year, and cleaning up the “shoot yourself in the foot” issues will go a long way toward establishing consistency on offense.

Specifically, reducing pre-snap penalties and cutting down on drops would go a long way toward creating consistency on offense. Drops speak for themselves (catch the ball!), but lets take a look at the penalty issue. According to NFLPenalties.com, the Packers have logged 19 pre-snap penalties on offense through nine games, tenth most in the league. In general, I think coaches worry a little bit too much about staying “on schedule” on offense, but putting yourself in a five-yard hole will sink your offense quickly.

Here’s a perfect example of the havoc pre-snap penalties can cause.. On the Packers’ second offensive drive in their Week 9 loss to the Detroit Lions, they actually moved the ball pretty well. However, their drive started to stall a bit right on the edge of field goal range, and on a windy, rainy night they were going to have to be deep in Lions territory before they could confidently kick a field goal. On 3rd and 3 from the Lions’ 32-yard line, Sean Rhyan committed a false start, putting the Packers into a 3rd and 8. Jordan Love threw incomplete on that 3rd and 8 and, rather than attempt a 54-yard field goal in bad weather, Matt LaFleur elected to take an intentional delay of game penalty and give Daniel Whelan an easier punt.

Rhyan’s penalty dramatically affected the Packers’ options in that situation. Even if the Packers hadn’t managed to convert their original 3rd and 3, a 4th and 3 from the 32-yard line provides a much wider range of options, even including going for it on a relatively short 4th down if it came to that.

Run defense reliability (Difficulty: medium)

Let’s be clear right from the start on this one: the Packers’ run defense isn’t bad, especially not compared to last year. The Packers have seen almost across the board improvement in their run defense stats moving from Joe Barry to Jeff Hafley, and even if they don’t improve here at all, they’ll still be in significantly better shape down the stretch than they were in 2023.

But they could improve their general reliability in that area, and I think it’s going to come down to personnel. Specifically, this one hinges on Quay Walker.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but the Packers have two reliable linebackers right now, and Walker isn’t one of them. The best two off-ball members of the front seven are Edgerrin Cooper and Eric Wilson, and they need to be the primary linebackers going forward.

This should be an easy fix, but it will require organizational fortitude that I don’t think we’ve seen from the Packers in the Brian Gutekunst/Matt LaFleur era. Walker should be in a smaller, more focused role, but you can bet the Packers will keep him calling plays and on the field as much as possible going forward.

The fix is easy, the execution is hard, and that’s why I call this a medium-difficulty fix.

Red zone success (Difficulty: medium)

Success in the red zone is a nebulous goal to achieve, but adding a bit of efficiency in this part of the field would do wonders for the Packers’ overall performance. So far this season, the Packers have scored touchdown on just 47.06% of their red zone trips, fourth worst in the entire NFL.

Not to harp too much on the Lions game, but let’s circle back to Week 9 again. The Packers lost that game by 10 points. Can we find 10 points they left on the field?

If you guessed yes because of the simple fact that I brought this point up, you’d be correct. But I can actually find the Packers 11 spare points, all left on the field through failed trips in the red zone.

The first came on the Packers’ second drive of the third quarter. On what may have been their best drive of the day, the Packers moved the ball from their 25 to the Detroit 14 in just seven plays, but things fell apart from there. Jordan Love threw incomplete on 1st and 10 from the 14, and then two bad snaps in a row brought the Packers to fourth down. They kicked a field goal to cut the deficit to 24-6.

Then, on their very next drive, the Packers again moved the ball well. But things again fell apart inside the Lions’ 20. On 1st and 10 from the Detroit 18 yard-line, Chris Brooks ran for nine yards. Jordan Love threw incomplete on 2nd and 1, and Dontayvion Wicks dropped a pass in the end zone on 3rd and 1, then Josh Jacobs was stuffed on the Packers’ 4th down attempt.

It’s no easy thing to say that they could have just scored two touchdowns there, but in a tight game against a good team it’s imperative to make the most of every opportunity, and the Packers clearly failed to do that.

It’s equally not easy to “just get better in the red zone.” This is a multivariate problem, and it’s not as simple as flicking one switch for instant improvement. But coming away with even a couple of more touchdowns in the red zone in the second half would improve their chances in any given game immensely.

Pass rush proficiency (Difficulty: hard)

Finally, we get to the real hard fix for the Packers: the pass rush. You know the stats here. They’re bad! Everybody on the defensive front is having a bad time in the Jeff Hafley scheme for some reason.

But it can get better. Scheme notwithstanding, the Packers need more from Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark. They’re both talented enough that they shouldn’t be limited by scheme, and there’s some evidence on the Gary front that things are beginning to turn around. After recording just six pressures in the Packers’ first five games, Gary has 15 in their last four. That’s far from where he needs to be, especially on a per-snap basis, but it’s a start. Getting more from Gary will go a long way toward improving the pass rush.

But it can’t just be Gary and Clark. The Packers need reliable, team-level production in the pass rush or their playoff run will end with a capable passer calmly shredding the secondary, unaffected by the Packers’ front four. Hafley has had some success with blitzes and simulated pressures of late, but overall the pass rush just needs to be more consistent to be what the team needs it to be.

Where does the rest of that pass rushing productivity come from? It’s not clear, but by trading Preston Smith, Gutekunst clearly indicates that he thinks the solution is on the roster. Is it Lukas Van Ness? Kingsley Enagbare? Brenton Cox? Arron Mosby? Some combination thereof? Hopefully all of the above and more. The Packers just have to get to the quarterback more, and figuring out how to do it consistently should be goal number one for the defense the rest of the year.