De’Vondre Campbell was a one-man revolution on the Packers’ defense in 2021. He signed with little fanfare in early June and took his time getting up to speed in the Packers defense, opening camp as a backup before eventually ascending to a top role. From there, he was a revelation, providing range, athleticism, and sure tackling the likes of which most Packers fans not alive for the Nitschke era have never seen.

He earned a first-team All-Pro nod for his trouble, and the Packers bet big that he could repeat that performance, signing him to a five-year, $50 million contract in March.

It’s been taken as something of a given that Campbell will be exactly the player he was last year. But what if he isn’t? What would that mean for the Packers defense? And what are the chances Campbell can’t live up to the hype?

Will De’Vondre Campbell be worse in 2022?

Let’s take the last question first. I don’t think it’s probable that Campbell regresses, but there are some potential warning signs.

First, Campbell is entering his age 29 season. That doesn’t make him old, per se, but he’s not young, either. He also logged some pretty heavy playing time last year, recording 988 snaps in 16 regular season games. He played 880 for the Cardinals in 2020 and 924 and 901 for the Falcons in 2019 and 2018, respectively. In short, he’s been on the field a lot, and some decline from age and wear-and-tear wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

Campbell also had a career year last season in one key area: missed tackles. According to Pro Football Focus, Campbell’s missed tackle rate in 2021 was just 2.9%, beating his previous career best of 3.4% in 2018. But other than those two seasons, Campbell hasn’t always been an entirely sure tackler; his missed tackle rate in 2021 was 8.1%, in 2019 it was 5.9%, and in 2017, his only other season as a starter, it was 5.5%.

If Campbell is closer to 5 or 6% than 3%, that would represent just 3-4 additional missed tackles over the course of the season. That may not seem like much, but we’re talking about maintaining an insanely high level of play. If he misses more tackles and experiences any age-related decline in his athleticism, Campbell might be a very different looking player in 2022.

However, I think there’s also reason to believe Campbell will be the same guy in 2022 that he’s more or less always been. Check out how his pure counting stats compare over the past three seasons.

That’s three years’ worth of games with three different teams. It seems like Campbell putting up about 100 tackles, a couple of interceptions, a couple of sacks, and half a dozen tackles for loss with a couple of other stats mixed in is basically just how he does business. The real difference in his performance appears to have come from the players around him. You can probably pencil Campbell in for another similar performance this year.

Even if he’s worse from a grading perspective, if Campbell puts up those kinds of numbers, it’s probably a net positive for the Packers’ defense.

A down year for Campbell stresses other parts of the Packers’ defense

But say Campbell does regress. What would that mean for the rest of the Packers’ defense?

For starters, it would mean that the Packers might not be able to play many of the single-linebacker defenses they played last year. A base defense with three linemen, two edge rushers, and Campbell was a common sight last year, but if Campbell isn’t as reliable, it would be harder to justify having only one inside linebacker on the field. 

That’s not necessarily a problem since the Packers are making a concerted effort to move toward a heavier base defense, anyway — Quay Walker will eventually be on the field a lot, usually at the same time as Campbell. But if Walker has to come along slowly, the Packers would be forced to run a heavier box by putting Krys Barnes on the field or by moving Adrian Amos down to play more of a hybrid safety role.

Barnes and Amos aren’t necessarily bad options, but they’re not ideal, either, and they don’t really fit with the Packers’ goals of getting larger and more athletic up front. But if Campbell experiences any kind of decline — and if their first round pick can’t pick up the slack in the short term — it might be the only option they’d have.

Want more great Packers content? Add Blue 58 - A Packers Podcast to your feed today. Take a listen to a few of the latest episodes below, then subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you prefer to listen.