Is it Drafty in Here?


Tonight is the start of my second favorite sports event of the year. It's NFL Draft Time!

If you read my "Welcome to The Packer Perspective" post, you'll remember that I don't like mock drafts. I'll repeat that here. I don't like mock drafts. They're stupid. They put too much stock into things that people know absolutely nothing about. How can we have any idea what a team is actually thinking? It's ridiculous that people try to predict the first round of the draft, much less all seven, but some people put out draft after draft after draft based on the "latest rumors" and rumblings from NFL though a team would actually tell you who they're drafting. Not only that, but some writers have the audacity to criticize NFL GM's when they dare to do something other than what the writer predicted.

So anyway, you're not going to see that here. I won't even predict who the Packers will pick (but I'll be happy with a lineman on either side of the ball or a linebacker, safety, or running back). I'm happy to watch the picks roll in and the teams swap picks as they jostle for position to draft that perfect player. I will, however, make three very boring predictions.

1. Quarterbacks will go early and often...and draft analysts will be surprised.

Quarterbacks always go much earlier than people believe they should, and the analysts are always surprised at this. I don't understand why. Quarterback is the game's most important position, so obviously the prospects at that position are going to be a little bit over-valued. It shouldn't be a surprise, then, when they start flying off the board in droves. It wouldn't shock me one bit if there were more than four quarterbacks picked in the first round and a half...but it will surprise the analysts. And they'll tell you that. Repeatedly.

2. Ted Thompson's Pick Will be Boring...but Productive

The only fancy thing Ted Thompson has ever done in his entire life is buy a used car that was only five years old...and that car was a 1993 Ford Escort, so it doesn't even count. Every Packer fan knows that Steady Teddy doesn't make splashy moves in free agency or the draft. I think he's made exactly one move in either arena that could be considered a splash moeve: signing Charles Woodson and trading back into the first round to grab Clay Matthews. And at the time, suitors weren't exactly lining up for Charles Woodson, so that's hardly even the mega-move it seems like now that he's cemented a spot in Canton. So anyway, I'm pretty confident that Ted Thompson's first round pick probably won't be someone with any character issues or someone that could be considered a risk or a project. Rather, he'll go for the most bang for his buck.

3. Many Preposterous Statements Will Be Made

The only people who congratulate themselves more than politicians are NFL draft analysts who find teams that coincidentally agree with them. I guarantee that at some point during tonight's first round, you'll hear some analyst praise a pick saying something along the lines of "this is a great move for Team X. I had this guy rated really highly on my board." Oh, it's a good pick because you say so? Well, I'm sure that team is very relieved to have your approval. The entire organization was probably reading your columns this week just to make sure they picked the right guy. Good job.

AnalysisJon Meerdink