2022 Edge Prospects Are Athletic and Versatile
After enjoying the talents of Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Rashan Gary together for all or part of the last three seasons, the Packers find themselves with a bit of a need at edge rusher.
With Za’Darius Smith off to Minnesota, the depth chart is awfully slim beyond the top two guys. Jonathan Garvin and Tipa Galeai are depth prospects and special teamers in the best of circumstances, but they’re currently the Packers’ third and fourth edge rushers. Suffice it to say, the Packers need an upgrade — and they’ll probably need to look beyond the draft for some support lest they go into the season awfully thin at one of the defense’s most important positions.
How do you find a good edge rusher?
Finding a player worth drafting at edge rusher falls into the classic “simple, but not easy” trap. Sticking with the traits and production guidelines we laid out in our draft philosophy piece, we can tier out our prospects like this:
Prospects who are athletic and productive
Prospects who are just athletic
Prospects who are just productive
Defining “athleticism” and “production” can be a little bit tricky, so let’s keep it as simple as possible. For our purposes, we’ll define “athletic” prospects as those that have a Relative Athletic Score of 8 or better — elite athletes, at least according to Kent Lee Platte’s near-universally accepted number.
In terms of productivity, I rely on the Production Ratio stat with which we measure Packers pass rushersevery year. It’s not perfect, but we should be able to at least get a ballpark idea of how productive a guy is with it. We’ll set a Production Ratio of 1.5 as our minimum benchmark for productivity.
With those definitions, a Tier 1 prospect will have a Relative Athletic Score of 8 or more and a Production Ratio of 1.5 or more. Tier 1 prospects are our best and brightest — we’ll focus most of our draft coverage on them. That’s not to say Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys can’t be good; in many cases, we’ll be interested in those guys for a variety of other reasons. But I think it makes the most sense to dive deepest on the Tier 1 guys.
Seven players meet our Tier 1 thresholds this year. Here’s a quick look at each of them, organized alphabetically by last name.
Amare Barno - Virginia Tech
Height - 6-5
Weight - 247
RAS - 9.72
Production Ratio - 1.5
Analysis: If you like length, you like Amare Barno. Some draft guides list him as tall as 6-foot-6, which would make him look even more like a stork on a football field than he already does if true. Still, he’s been quite productive even if he’s a bit underweight, but that productivity is tempered by the fact that he’s only played 21 games in college. He’s also piled up a fair bit of production against bad opponents, making his 1.5 PR a little less impressive than it might otherwise have been.
Jermaine Johnson II - Florida State
Height - 6-5
Weight - 254
RAS - 9.57
Production Ratio - 1.52
Analysis: Johnson has fairly prototypical size, offering enough weight to be a powerful pass rusher while holding up against the run. His production numbers are good, but he’s a bit of a late bloomer which could be cause for concern. A breakout 2021 season pushed him up draft boards, but he played 16 nondescript games at Georgia before showing up for Florida State. If you’re looking for a can’t-miss first-round prospect, I’d like to see a little bit more long-term production.
George Karlaftis - Purdue
Height - 6-4
Weight - 266
RAS - 8.72
Production Ratio - 1.65
Analysis: Karlaftis is a blunt instrument, and I mean that as a compliment. There’s no subtlety to his game at all; his entire pass-rushing plan can be summed up in a Marshawn Lynch quote (if you know, you know). And while that could be cause for concern, Rashan Gary has thrived with that basic plan as he’s developed other moves to complement his prodigious power. Karlaftis probably has a similar path to success, and with his size he’ll offer run support as well.
DeAngelo Malone - Western Kentucky
Height - 6-3
Weight - 243
RAS - 9.05
Production Ratio - 1.5
Analysis: Malone’s path to the NFL Draft has been a long one. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, he ended up playing 61 games for the Hilltoppers, piling up 32.5 sacks over his long college career. He’s on the small size, but he’s plenty fast and he’s shown he can get into the backfield consistently. Whether or not he can do it at the NFL level is a fair question, but you can’t deny his productivity to this point.
David Ojabo - Michigan
Height - 6-4
Weight - 250
RAS - 9.35
Production Ratio - 1.64
Analysis: Ojabo would be a surefire first-round pick but for one unfortunate fact: he tore his Achilles tendon at his Pro Day workout. If you’re willing to take on the risk (and lack of short-term impact) that comes with the recovery process, you might have yourself a gem here, but that’s a sizeable red flag for an otherwise pretty immaculate prospect.
Kayvon Thibodeaux - Oregon
Height - 6-4
Weight - 254
RAS - 9.72
Production Ratio - 1.82
Analysis: I’m glad I don’t have to make the call, because I think I might like Thibodeaux better than consensus top overall pick Aidan Hutchinson. I like his bendy athleticism, I like his production, and I like his length. Hutchinson is great, but I think Thibodeaux’s ceiling is higher — not that the Packers will have to worry about deciding between either one.
Sam Williams - Mississippi
Height - 6-4
Weight - 261
RAS - 9.65
Production Ratio - 1.57
Analysis: Williams is as explosive as it gets. He ran a truly eye-popping 4.43-second 40-yard dash at 261 pounds, a remarkable feat in a time of the sports calendar that’s not lacking for insane athletic accomplishments. Williams seems like he’s a one-trick pony, though, being more of a “run and chase” run defender than a firm edge setter. He also has some fairly concerning off-field stuff in his personal dossier, which may take him off some teams’ boards.