2022 Shows the Strengths and Weaknesses of AJ Dillon's Game

This season has taught us a lot about the Packers generally, but it’s also been revealing about specific players — and I feel like AJ Dillon is one of the players we’ve learned the most about.

The broad strokes of Dillon’s story are the same as they’ve always been: he’s an athletic marvel in a juggernaut’s body, capable of running both around and through defenders while also proving himself to be a capable receiver.

The last two games have given us plenty of examples of every part of that scouting report. Dillon has given us his best two-game stretch of the season, totaling 157 yards on 26 carries (an average of more than six yards per carry) while scoring two touchdowns. He’s also caught six of seven targets for another 50 yards, a tidy 8.3 yards per catch. It’s been great!

On the season, though, Dillon’s story is a different one. Other than the last two weeks, his output has, at best, been inconsistent. Far too often he’s been unable to break free, finding himself swarmed by defenders he couldn’t shake or overpower.

These two versions of Dillon show up pretty clearly in this chart. This data plots Dillon’s running grade from Pro Football Focus against the average run blocking grade of the Packers’ offensive line in the same week as well as the opposing defense’s run defense grade. I’ve also included Aaron Jones’ grades for comparison.

The data shows a few things. First, Dillon’s success is much more dependent on the offensive line than Aaron Jones’ is. He needs help. That’s not a slight against Dillon; almost nobody does what Aaron Jones can do. But when the Packers’ offensive line struggled early this year, so did Dillon.

Second, Dillon’s success, such as it is, has mostly come in games when the opposing run defense hasn’t performed well. Dillon has beat up on some bad units, or units having a poor day, at the very least. Again, that’s not a shot at Dillon; get the yards while they’re there to be gotten. But conditions for success need to be taken into account.

Given the cap hit Aaron Jones brings to the Packers next year, it’s possible the Packers will be leaning even more heavily on Dillon in the future. Fans may want to temper their expectations if that’s the case. Dillon has shown he can produce, but he hasn’t been able to rise above poor blocking much this year. In the right situation, he’s still very dangerous; bludgeoning teams with a player like Dillon is great if you have the offensive line to do some heavy lifting on his behalf. But if the Packers are counting on Dillon to create on his own now or in the future, they’re not likely to get what they’re looking for.