Episode 78 - We've Cracked the Code on the Packers Draft
The NFL Draft is nearly here, and we’re ready to make some predictions. Thanks to groundbreaking (for us) methodology developed by our Gary Zilavy, we have a new way of predicting who the Packers may be targeting in the draft. Let’s dive right in.
The Packers Athletic Threshold Score
The Packers have well known athletic thresholds they consider at every position, and the Packers Athletic Threshold Score is an attempt to encapsulate all those measurables into a single number. We take testing data from the NFL Combine and weight it at particular positions in hopes of having the best possible representation of how the Packers’ could view this prospect based solely on his athleticism.
Keep in mind that the Packers (and every other team if they’re at all competent) use athletic data to confirm what they see on the field, not as an end in itself. What a player does on the field will always trump his testing numbers, unless his numbers are incredibly bad.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley - 6-0, 233 - Penn State
PAT Score: 8
Analysis: The hype surrounding Barkley echoes how scouts discussed the potential of backs Adrian Peterson, Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette before the draft. Considered a special talent at the position, Barkley excels both as a runner and a receiver. The running back posted a faster 40-yard dash, higher vertical leap and more reps on the bench press than any back drafted by the Packers since 2005.
Nick Chubb - 5-11, 227 - Georgia
PAT Score: 7.25
Analysis: Chubb was the successor to Todd Gurley at Georgia, and showed the qualities of an explosive, fast running back. Chubb split playing time in college with Sony Michel – another draft-eligible back this year. Because he wasn’t an every-down back with Georgia, he’ll have to develop as a blocker and receiver. Compared to previously drafted running backs by the Packers, Chubb performed above-average in every drill except the three-cone.
Justin Jackson - 6-0, 199 - Northwestern
PAT Score: 7
Analysis: Jackson’s time on the three-cone drill would be the fastest of any Packers running back drafted since 2005. The drill demonstrates a player’s ability to change directions on a whim, something Jackson excelled at in the Big Ten. He’ll enter the NFL as just the second player in the last 20 years to attempt more than 1,100 career rushes in college.
Tight Ends
Mike Gesicki - 6-5, 247 - Penn State
PAT Score: 12
Analysis: Mike Gesicki has been so overwhelmingly athletic at every stop in his career it hasn’t mattered that he doesn’t block. Dating back to his days as a slam dunk champ in high school basketball, Gesicki has always used his size, speed, and leaping ability to get open consistently. He runs well (4.54) and can jump out of the gym (41-inch vertical) and generally just looks the part of a modern move tight end.
Ian Thomas - 6-4 259 - Indiana
PAT Score: 9
Analysis: Thomas is not the overwhelming athlete that Gesicki is, but he’s a better blocker with enormous hands (11 ½ inches) and comes from a program where he may not have gotten a lot of exposure; Indiana isn’t known for churning out high-end offensive players. It’s possible that while Thomas won’t light up the scoreboard with big receiving numbers, he’ll still be a long time contributor on an NFL team.
Jaylen Samuels - 5-11, 225 - North Carolina St.
PAT Score: 8.25
Analysis: Samuels doesn’t scream “tight end” with his height and weight, but maybe that’s the best thing for him. The NFL is more willing than ever to work with players who may not fit traditional positional molds, and that is Samuels to a T. Evaluators say he blocks well enough to take on fullback duties, and he’s lined up there as well as at tight end, running back, slot receiver, and even as a Wildcat quarterback so far in his career. Perhaps an NFL team will view him as the ultimate H-back and make him their pick.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton - 6-3, 218 - SMU
PAT Score: 6.5
Analysis: Sutton was a safety coming out of high school, didn’t really catch on as a receiver until after his redshirt freshman year, and is known for his physical play with opposing defensive backs downfield. If that sounds like Jordy Nelson, it’s not a coincidence, because their measurables are very similar. Like Nelson, Sutton is good but not great in the agility drills but makes plays with size and body control. He’d likely not be a good fit at 14, but in the second round and beyond the Packers could be interested.
Dylan Cantrell - 5-11, 226 - Texas Tech
PAT Score: 6
Analysis: Cantrell mostly matches the Packers’ preferences in terms of agility and body mass, because his 40-yard dash time leaves much to be desired. He’s more like a Randall Cobb/Ty Montgomery slot-type than an outside receiver. The Packers would probably like a guy of his profile toward the later rounds, if they’re interested at all.
D.J. Chark - 6-0, 199 - LSU
PAT Score: 6
Analysis: Big but not real big, D.J. Chark fits the mold of a Greg Jennings body-type, a guy who might be confused for a 200-meter sprinter as opposed to a wide receiver. Chark would give the Packers another second round prospect to work on, but he didn’t run agility drills at the Combine, so it’s tough to get a precise read on him.
Offensive Line
Kolton Miller - 6-8, 309 - UCLA
PAT Score: 9.25
Analysis: Tall and talented, Miller looks like a left tackle through and through. Scouts knock him for inconsistent technique in pass protection, but he’s long enough to overcome shortcomings in his game, pun fully intended. Fromapure physical perspective, he looks like he could play in the NFL for a long time, and he certainly meets what the Packers are looking for. It’s only a question of whether he’ll be consistent enough to get the job done.
Brian O’Neill - 6-6, 297 - Pittsburgh
PAT Score: 7.5
Analysis: O’Neill is the second coming of Jason Spriggs from an athletic profile. His speed and agility numbers are reminiscent of a tight end, but his size and build says tackle. Some people think he could be better suited to guard in the NFL, which would fit with the Packers’ tendency to target college tackles to build up their guard ranks.
James Daniels - 6-3, 306 - Iowa
PAT Score: 6.5
Analysis: An interior lineman all the way, Daniels is like a longer Corey Linsley. Though not as strong, Daniels’s overall measurables look like a guy the Packers may target. If they’re looking for depth on the interior line, this might be a guy the Packers are interested in, though they rarely look for pure centers and they’d have to work with him to get him to guard.
Defensive Line/EDGE
Bradley Chubb - 6-4, 269 - North Carolina St.
PAT Score: 9.25
Analysis: What’s not to like? Chubb is Nick Perry with production to match the measurables. He’s tall, long-armed, and has good mass and can move like a much smaller man and dominated his competition in college. If he fell to the Packers at 14, it would be close to a dream scenario.
Taven Bryan - 6-4, 291 - Florida
PAT Score: 8.25
Analysis: Tall, thick, and fast, Bryan looks like a guy who could easily play outside or inside on an NFL defensive line. His overall testing numbers would look just fine on a tight end (including a 35-inch vertical leap!), save for his 40-yard dash time (which means less than nothing for defensive linemen). He might not make sense for the Packers at 14 overall, but in a trade down scenario, who knows?
Marcus Davenport - 6-6, 264 - Texas-San Antonio
PAT Score: 8.25
Analysis: A workout warrior, but not in the pejorative sense (yet), Davenport is a tantalizing prospect because of a his raw athleticism. His testing numbers are right in line for what the Packers would hope for, especially his blistering 40-yard dash time and excellent agility numbers for a player of his size. The question is whether his production will match his talent at the next level. He didn’t dominate at UTSA, and if he couldn’t tear up the competition at that level, will he do it in the NFL?
OLB/EDGE
Oren Burks - 6-3, 233 - Vanderbilt
PAT Score: 9.25
Analysis: He has the athletic profile to succeed in the NFL, but his size raises some questions. He’s not a true edge rusher or a true off the ball linebacker, but NFL defenses are more creative than ever, so that may not matter. He looks the part of a Packers off the ball linebacker, but the Packers have a lot of adequate help at that position.
Matthew Thomas - 6-3, 232 - Florida State
PAT Score: 8.25
Analysis: Another off-the-ball linebacker type, Thomas can run and tackle with the best of them, but athleticism is his game start to finish. From a pure testing perspective, the Packers might be interested, but his ceiling is probably special teams.
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo - 6-1, 253 - Oklahoma
PAT Score: 8
Analysis: A little bit edge, a little bit outside linebacker, a little bit everything else, Okoronkwo looks on paper a little bit like former Packers linebacker Carl Bradford. He projects to go near where Bradford was selected, too, but it’s easy to see the Packers shying away from a guy who doesn’t seem to have a real position.
Inside Linebackers
Leighton Vander Esch - 6-4, 256 - Boise St.
PAT Score: 8.25
Analysis: With phenomenal agility scores, good size, and decent speed, Vander Esch looks like an inside linebacker who the Packers could plug and play for a decade. But with inside linebacker valued less and less by NFL defenses, why would the Packers want to take him at 14 overall, especially with one established starter at the position already?
Genard Avery - 6-1, 248 - Memphis
PAT Score: 7.25
Analysis: If you were casting an inside linebacker for a movie, you’d probably be interested in a guy with a body like Genard Avery. He’s strongly built (a former state champion powerlifter) and can outrun Vander Esch, he matches well what the Packers are looking for at inside linebacker. If the Packers target him, Jake Ryan is probably out of a job.
Micah Kiser - 6-2, 238 - Virginia
PAT Score: 7
Analysis: A little on the small side and a little on the slow side, Kiser was undeniably productive in college. But for a guy going toward the middle rounds, production may not be enough. He’s borderline on the Packers’ thresholds.
Defensive Backs
Tony Brown - 6-0, 198 - Alabama
PAT Score: 6.5
Analysis: Question marks abound with Brown, but his testing numbers align well with the Packers’ thresholds. He’s out of the question at 14, but late the Packers could come calling, especially with Brown’s interesting size.
Denzel Ward - 5-10, 191 - Ohio State
PAT Score: 6.25
Analysis: An undeniable athlete, Ward could already be off the board for the Packers due to his size. The Packers aren’t interested in cornerbacks under 5-11, but he’s such a tremendous athlete, it could be worth bending. Ward more than checks every other box.
Josh Jackson - 6-1, 192 - Iowa
PAT Score: 6.25
Analysis: Josh Jackson has an underwhelming 40-yard dash time to his name, but he did solid work in the agility drills and has imposing size. The Packers would probably like to see a little bit more of an overwhelming athlete at 14th overall, but they’d probably settle for Jackson if push came to shove.