Conference Championship Thoughts

Sometimes, what happens in the NFL is not as important as when.

John Harbaugh was one of the first head coaches fired this cycle, and was also the first off the board, agreeing to terms with the New York Giants while the playoffs were still underway, only to see the chance to coach Josh Allen come available only a few days later.

You’ve got a similar situation in Los Angeles, where the Chargers are set to hire MIke McDaniel as their next offensive coordinator. McDaniel is surely excited to work with budding superstar Justin Herbert, but I’m sure he’d have relished the chance to work with Allen as well. 

But McDaniel may (and that wod carries some weight, since there’s no guarantee he’d have even been interested in being a head coach again) have some unexpected room for regret because of how the Bills handled Sean McDermott’s departure. Rather than let him go immediately after their collapse on the evening of January 17 (Saturday), the Bills waited all the way until Monday (the 19th) to pull the trigger on McDermott. Players found out about his firing through the media, since they’d already cleaned out their lockers and gone through their exit interviews on Sunday.

There are tons of examples like this every year. Decisions delayed by even a day affect other decisions throughout the league, and coaches sticking with teams making a deep run don’t get the same crack at available jobs as teams whose seasons end earlier, and any interviews they do take detract from their ability to do their current job.

Consider the case of Denver Broncos' position coach Jim Leonhard. His name has begun to percolate on the defensive coordinator circuit again after a few years away from being connected to that kind of job. But he’s unable to really dive into the interview game, because his Broncos are still playing this weekend — albeit in a game they really have no chance to win because their starting QB busted up his ankle in a freak play in the Broncos’ win over the Bills. 

It’s all one big, wild Gordian knot. Untangling it is impossible because so many developments rely on contingent events that have their own deep and weird sets of contingent events. The butterfly effect is alive and well in the NFL, and the beating of tiny wings can send big ripples throughout the league.

Here are my thoughts on the conference championship matchups. 

Patriots @ Broncos

How nice for the Patriots that the entire AFC playoff field decided to lie down for them.

First, Justin Herbert and the Chargers took the day off and put up just three points against the Patriots. Sure, the Patriots’ defense had something to do with that, but even if they did sack Herbert six times, it’s not like getting pressure on him was a rarity this year. He was sacked five or more times in five other games this year, not counting the Patriots game, so really the Chargers just allowed the Patriots to do more of the same.

Then, C.J. Stroud put on a one-man demonstration of what it would look like for a team to be shaving points, gifting the Patriots four interceptions and generally looking like, well, every other Ohio State quarterback to get drafted highly in the 21st century. Man, I am against helmet scouting, but Ohio State quarterbacks sure make it hard to avoid.

And now, the Patriots get to face the Broncos without their starting quarterback. I wish Jarrett Stidham nothing but the best and I hope he and the Broncos find a way to make it work (who knows how a game turns out if it stays close?), but come on. The Patriots could hardly have had an easier path to the Super Bowl. Year after year, the Packers run into a buzzsaw in the playoffs or have an act of God work against them, but then you see the Patriots just waltz through the playoffs with their whole conference just doing everything they can to make it easier. There’s no justice in football.

Rams @ Seahawks

I don’t know what I’d have to say to pitch this game to you.

Division rivals, good offenses, a team that’s been there before versus a team trying to do it for the first time, the last and best shots for Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams, the redemption arc for Sam Darnold. 

I mean, if you don’t like that, you don’t like NFL football.

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