The Power Sweep

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How has the Packers' safety position changed this offseason?

It was never a secret that the Packers’ safeties would struggle in 2023. That seemed apparent to God and everyone from the moment it became clear that Aaron Rodgers’ time in Green Bay was over.

No matter how it turned out, the 2023 season would always mostly be about a soft landing from the four-time MVP, and as Brian Gutekunst prepared to retool and relaunch a championship contender under Jordan Love, it was clear that he couldn’t address every position at once. Coming out of 2022, the Packers had needs at many positions, and they couldn’t all be filled. There was little money to spend in free agency, and, with a weak draft class at the position, there was little he could do at safety. So, the position languished.

That’s not to say the Packers didn’t try some stuff. Jonathan Owens got every opportunity to earn a big contract. Rudy Ford got extended playing time in a similar opportunity, as did Darnell Savage. Anthony Johnson continued to experiment with the position switch he started in college.

Those were fairly meek attempts in the grand scheme, and it surely surprised no one that none of them really worked out.

But for as passive as those attempts may have been, the Packers have been equally aggressive about addressing their weaknesses at safety in 2024. They signed Xavier McKinney, the consensus best safety on the market, to a huge free agent deal. They spent a second round pick on Javon Bullard, one of the top safeties in the draft, if not the outright best. Then they double and triple dipped at the position, trading up to nab Evan Williams and grabbing Kitan Oladapo. It’s been a busy offseason.

But now remade, how is the safety position actually different? We can’t really know until we see these players on the field, but here’s my attempt to put some numbers to the question.

What numbers are we using?

To try to get a well-rounded picture of what the Packers are now working with at safety compared to where they’ve been, I compiled a bunch of physical and grading data. I included age, height, weight, Relative Athletic Score, and 40-yard dash times for physical metrics, then grouped up alignment data and grades in run defense, tackling, and coverage from Pro Football Focus. For all the alignment data and grades, I only used the players’ most recent season. That does create the fraught proposition of comparing college grades to pro grades, but it’s all we’ve got and it should reflect how players like Javon Bullard, Evan Williams, and Kitan Oladapo played against their level of competition.

Generally, when I talk about averages, I am including Anthony Johnson Jr. with only the 2023 Packers and not with the 2024 group. I figure he’s likely to play a smaller role with this year’s team, if he’s on it at all, than he did last year. I also only used players who played at least 300 snaps on defense in these calculations; even though Dallin Leavitt and Benny Sapp were nominally safeties on the 2023 Packers, they barely factored into the defense.

So, what did we find?

2024 safeties are younger, taller, lighter, and a little less athletic

On average, the 2024 Packers will feature a safety group that has some notable physical differences from the 2023 squad.

For starters, youth will be served. The 2024 newcomers have an average age of 23.75 years, a full three years younger than the 2023 crew of Jonathan Owens, Rudy Ford, Darnell Savage, and Anthony Johnson.

Surprisingly, the safeties were ever-so-slightly bulkier in 2024. The 2023 group averaged out to be just over 71 inches tall (about 5-11) and 204.5 pounds, while the 2024 squad is about 72 inches (six feet even) tall and 203.75 pounds. That is a small but not inconsiderable difference driven mainly by Kitan Oladapo, who, among the Packers’ safeties at least, stands a towering 6-foot-2.

The 2023 group also has an athleticism advantage. Every safety who played significant snaps in 2023 posted a RAS of at least 8.12, and both Owens and Ford easily cleared 9.0. Among the 2023 safeties, three of the four players in our sample ran at least a 4.43 in the 40-yard dash.

The 2024 crew doesn’t nest nearly as well. Xavier McKinney’s bad testing day (just a 4.63 RAS) drops the group’s average to just 7.315, but even without him the athleticism isn’t quite as impressive as in 2024. Javon Bullard’s 8.25 is solid, but would rank as just the fourth-best score in the 2023 group. The same goes for his 4.47 40-yard dash.
This is not to say the Packers are in any kind of athleticism-related trouble at safety. Beyond a certain point, athletic ability is more about what you do with it than what you have, and none of the 2024 safeties really appear to have any kind of athletic limitation, even if they don’t quite compare to the 2023 squad in terms of pure testing ability.

2024 safeties are unique in their extremes

Sticking with the theme of physical characteristics, the 2024 safety group is also unique in its extremes. There was nobody built like the players the Packers will put on the field this fall on either end of the spectrum. No player was as short as Javon Bullard (the shortest player in the 2023 safety group was a half inch taller than Bullard) and there was nobody close to as big as Kitan Oladapo. At 6-foot-2 and 216 pounds, he towers above just about every safety in recent memory: according to Pro Football Reference, Oladapo will be just the fourth Packers safety since 2000 to stand 6-2 or taller and weigh 215 pounds or more. The others are Darren Sharper, Aaron Rouse, and Tariq Carpenter.

Again, this is not a crucial issue, but it’s a noteworthy change.

2024 safeties play near the line of scrimmage a lot more

The 2024 safeties also appear to differ from the 2023 safeties in their usage. To be sure, a lot of this is going to be determined by scheme preferences, but there appears to be a marked difference in skill sets between the 2023 safeties and the 2024 newcomers.

Pro Football Focus tracks four different areas of alignment that I think reflect defensive back usage: snaps in the box, snaps in the slot, snaps at wide corner, and snaps at safety. And at least according to how they played in their most recent season, the new safeties on the roster are markedly different in their usage from what we’ve seen in recent history. Of the four new players on the roster, only Javon Bullard played more snaps as a deep safety than he did near the line of scrimmage (in the box or slot). And Bullard, for his part, played primarily in the slot in 2022. Of the 2023 safeties, only Jonathan Owens played more near the line than he did deep.

If the Packers were looking to find players who are comfortable near the line, they certainly seem to have done so.

2024 safeties grade out better in every aspect

But not only that, the 2024 safeties appear to be much better at the jobs they did last season than the 2023 safeties were at theirs. I compiled PFF grades in three key areas (run defense, tackling, and coverage) and the newcomers handily beat the 2023 safeties.

2024 beats 2023 in run defense (average grade of 75.2 to 57.1), tackling (79.6 to 56.6), and coverage (84 to 65.2). It’s true that for three of the four players we’re talking about in the 2024 group, we’re looking at college grades. But I also think it’s worth pointing out that these players didn’t just grade out well, they dominated their competition in ways that we haven’t seen from a Packers safety prospect in…well, I don’t even know how long. When was the last time the Packers had someone you’d consider a great safety prospect?

In short, the Packers have dramatically reshaped their safety room. It’s not too much to expect this position to be dramatically better this season than it was in 2023, and even if you don’t want to put stock in the grades, I think we’ll at the very least see a more versatile and interesting safety position for the 2024 Packers.