How Should the Packers Use Aaron Jones in 2023?

Aaron Rodgers is gone, and the Packers’ offense figures to be substantially different in his absence.

The approach doesn’t seem likely to change all that much; Matt LaFleur is still going to run outside zone, play action, and send Jordan Love on bootleg excursions whenever possible. But it seems fair to assume that the Packers won’t be able to count on Love to carry the load in the same way that Rodgers often — perhaps usually — did.

Fortunately, the Packers aren’t short on offensive talent. In addition to their substantial investment on that side of the ball in this spring’s draft, the Packers also carry forward Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and AJ Dillon, each of whom should see his role increase in 2023.

Of those three, Jones is the most interesting case study. He’s clearly the most accomplished, and even heading into his age 29 season, he remains a viable weapon on offense. The question, then, is how should the Packers use him? For an answer, let’s look at how they’ve done so to this point in the LaFleur era.

Where has Aaron Jones spent the most time lined up?

The first big data point centers on where Jones spends his time lining up in the Packers’ formations. Throughout his four years under Matt LaFleur, Jones has steadily spent more time split out in the slot, peaking with 9.7% of his snaps coming there in 2022. 

That could be slightly misleading, as many of Jones’ slot snaps really just came as a result of his motion in the Packers’ two-back sets. These still count as slot reps, but I’d argue they’re something less than a “true” slot appearance. It’s not like he was lining up in a two-point stance getting ready to run an actual route, though he’s done that before. Still, Jones did log a career-high 59 snaps in the slot in 2022, which is noteworthy no matter how he got there.

What is Aaron Jones doing in the run game?

Our next data sets have to do with how the Packers use Aaron Jones in the running game, specifically what kinds of runs he’s involved in and where those runs are going.

In 2022, more than 33% of Jones’ run plays were gap runs; that is to say, they weren’t the sort of runs that would typically fit into what we think of when we think of the Shanahan tree wide zone offense. When you picture gap plays, think more pulling lineman and lead blockers and less of the unified “everybody move together” offensive line approach of the wide zone.

That 33% is easily the highest number of the LaFleur era, and is more in line with what we saw from the late McCarthy era Packers offense than what LaFleur was running when he first arrived in Green Bay. In 2017 and 2018, respectively, 39% and 33% of Jones’ carries came in gap scheme runs.

But there’s a key difference between the approaches used by Jones’ two coaches. Even with an increase in gap runs in 2022, Jones still ran outside more than ever before. Last season, a whopping 42.72% of Jones’ carries were considered “wide” runs by Pro Football Focus. Once again, that’s a high for the LaFleur era, and it’s more than he ran over guard or up the middle combined.

As an aside, this does paint a remarkable contrast between LaFleur and Mike McCarthy. While LaFleur looks for ways to get Jones to the perimeter, McCarthy sent him straight up the middle. In 2018, the year under McCarthy when Jones got the most opportunities, more than 63% of Jones’ carries went straight up the middle or over guard. When you’re sending your 5-foot-9, 207 pound running back right into the teeth of the defense, perhaps it’s time to move on.

How does Aaron Jones contribute in the passing game?

Turning to Jones’ contributions in the passing game, the Packers have increasingly used Jones behind the line of scrimmage when throwing the ball. In 2022, More than 63% of Jones’ targets came behind the line, a career-high by more than 10% and the highest of the LaFleur era by more than 12%. This, too, seems likely to be the result of Jones’ use in the Packers’ two-back system, but it’s nonetheless still disappointing. Using Jones that way resulted in a career-low average depth of target of -0.9 yards. Yes, the typical throw to Aaron Jones in 2022 lost yards before it gained anything. If that’s not an appropriate metaphor for the 2022 offense, I don’t know what is.

How do the Packers use Aaron Jones in the red zone?

Finally, before we recommend anything for how the Packers use Jones in 2023, we should look at how they used him in the red zone, the most important area of the field for the offense. In short, the Packers seem to have gone out of their way to use Jones less in the red zone over the past couple of seasons.

In 2020, Jones was given a handoff or was targeted with a pass on 48 of the Packers’ 159 plays in the red zone; 30.1% of their red zone plays were devoted to Jones. But in 2021 and 2022, Jones got just 22.8% and 26.4% of the red zone opportunities, respectively.

The numbers are just as bad in the “low” red zone, the area inside the opposing team’s 10-yard line. After soaking up a whopping 33% of the team’s low red zone plays in 2019, Jones was down to just over 20% in 2022.

How should the Packers use Jones in 2023?

Looking at the full picture of Aaron Jones’ usage, a few recommendations come to mind.

First, the Packers should continue to use Jones all over the formation. He’s a viable receiving weapon and has legitimate ability to line up as a slot receiver. But if the Packers want to get him to the slot, they should do so in a more traditional way; no more two-back motion, at least not if it’s going to limit Jones to checkdowns behind the line of scrimmage.

Second, the Packers should continue to run Jones outside. If he hasn’t thrived inside to this point in his career, there’s little reason to think that will change for his age 29 season. Plus, with AJ Dillon on the roster, running Jones right up the gut seems like a bit of a waste.

Finally, the Packers should try to find ways to get Jones more involved in the red zone, especially the low red zone. This has been one of the more unfortunate trends for the Packers the last couple of seasons, but now is a great time to reverse it. Get Jones involved in the red zone and prosper. It’s worked before, so let’s see it work again.