How Would Jordy Nelson Have Aged?

Davante Adams completed a brilliant season Sunday with a record-setting performance. After logging six catches for 55 yards, Adams finished 2021 with 123 catches for 1,555 yards and 11 touchdowns, totals unequaled in Packers history — a remarkable feat considering that history includes the likes of Don Hutson, James Lofton, and Sterling Sharpe, as good a trio as you’ll find in any team’s annals.

Adams’ totals pushed him past Jordy Nelson, whose 2014 total of 1,519 yards previously marked the high water mark for a single season. And I think Nelson’s 2014 is worth remembering for two reasons: First, it was a truly spectacular display of big-play prowess — seven of Nelson’s scores that year were 40 yards or longer, including five of 59-yards or more.

But second, it was our last glimpse of Nelson at the peak of his powers. Though he’d play three more seasons (two in Green Bay), Nelson was never the same after a torn ACL in the 2015 preseason.

The stats make it clear: Nelson declined pretty much across the board after his injury. Though he was still productive in 2016 (97 catches, 1,257 yards, 14 touchdowns), his legs were all but gone, and his decline showed up in his yards per catch, yards per target, and yards after the catch averages.

To put it more simply, recall the big-play touchdown stat above: seven touchdowns of 40 or more yards in 2014 alone. Nelson scored 20 more touchdowns in Green Bay after his knee injury, but none were more than 32 yards, and 13 were less than 10 yards. Whatever deep shot juice he once had was clearly gone.

Now, Nelson would have slowed down at some point. But it’s hard to imagine the decline would have been as precipitous if he hadn’t had a catastrophic knee injury.

What would that have looked like? Clearly, Nelson had a near-supernatural rapport with Aaron Rodgers; even a declining athlete doesn’t contribute as Nelson did without something of the sort. What if he had been able to decline more gradually from an athletic standpoint? He may never have matched his 2014 season, but it’s hard to escape the idea that we were robbed of a few more very good to great years from one of the best pass-catchers in Packers history.

Whatever comes next for Davante Adams, let’s hope we get to see his career play out in full.

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