I think I'm okay with Jordan Love's interceptions

The Packers have plenty to be excited about on offense. Even if there has been some regression, they still have more young, talented pass catchers than most teams. They have a strong offensive line that is keeping Jordan Love safe and upright. Their play caller is creative and innovative, even when he doesn’t have all his preferred pieces available. Offensively, it’s a good time to be a Packers fan.

The fly in the ointment has been Jordan Love’s interceptions, and there’s no two ways about it, he’s thrown a lot of them. Despite missing two games completely and a good chunk of a third, he leads the league with 10 picks and has been intercepted on 4.2% of his passes.

I mention the latter stat specifically to bring up the Brett Favre comparison that has become all too common; for however many interceptions he threw, Favre only managed an interception rate of 4.2% or worse in seven seasons, and many of those seasons came with pretty exculpatory evidence for Favre. In three of those seven seasons (2003, 2008, and 2010), injuries played a big role (which sounds familiar). In another (1991) he only threw four passes. And in two others, there were mitigating circumstances around him; in 1993, he was in just his second season as a starter (again, familiar) and in 2005 the Packers’ offensive line was an absolute joke. Three of the Packers’ five Week 1 starting linemen left the Packers after the 2005 season, and two never played in the NFL again.

I think this, as well as a lot of other data we’ve talked about on Blue 58 over the years, shows pretty conclusively that interceptions themselves are largely circumstantial. You certainly see that with the picks Love has thrown this year. Take a quick look at all of them, and you’ll see some trends emerge.

Against the Eagles, Love threw up the seam to Luke Musgrave on 2nd and 11 and a safety crashed down hard to pick off the pass.

Against the Vikings, Love threw three interceptions. The first came on 3rd and 7, when Love forced a pass to Christian Watson. The second was on 1st and 10, when Luke Musgrave tipped a pass intended for Romeo Doubs resulting in the pick. The third was on a 1st and 10, when the Vikings brought heavy pressure and Love threw up a pass to Dontayvion Wicks rather than taking the sack.

Against the Rams, the Packers called an odd sprintout pass on 3rd and 12 from deep in their own territory, only for Love to double clutch the throw and end up taking a hit as he threw, leading to a touchdown for the Rams.

Against the Cardinals, Love’s intended target fell down on a 2nd and 5 throw, leading to an easy pick.

Against the Texans, Love forced a throw to Dontayvion Wicks on 3rd and 3, resulting in a nifty play on the ball for Houston.

Against the Jaguars, Love seemed to take something off an out route pass on 2nd and 11, leading to another easy pick.

And finally, Love threw an ill-fated, ill-informed pass on 2nd and 2 late in the first half against the Lions, leading to a pick-6 that’s been discussed to death by now.

I think you see some trends here. First, Love’s picks tend to come on either third downs (three of them) or plays when the Packers are behind the sticks (two second-and-long interceptions). Obviously, you’re going to be passing more in these situations, but I think it’s telling that these are “make a play” situations where you’re counting on the quarterback to do something for you. More on this in a second.

Additionally, two of the ten are either plainly not his fault (the second Vikings interception and the Cardinals one) or explainable (again, the second Vikings pick). Throw in another one (the third Vikings pick) where the opposing team just made a great call, and you can write off about a third of his interceptions as not being mostly on his shoulders.

That leaves us with two others that we can debate. I’m not really interested in debating them, but if you want to call the Jaguars and Lions interceptions plainly Love’s fault and the result of both bad decisions and bad throws that are exclusively on him, I think that would be an accurate description.

But ultimately, I think most of Love’s interceptions, whether they’re his fault or not, are the resulting of him trying to make a play, of trying to force a play or manufacture something that’s not there. And this might be the weird part, but I think that’s actually a good thing.

About this time last year, Matt LaFleur was saying for what felt like the hundredth time in the 2023 season that he wanted Jordan Love to cut loose more, to trust his arm and let the deep shots fly. He wanted Love to stop trying to be perfect and instead just…be. Just throw the ball and let his arm talent shine through. I don’t know if that’s what sparked the turnaround in Love for the second half of last season, but it seems to reflect the way he played on the field. He was less tentative, more decisive, and more aggressive, and the Packers’ offense flourished as a result.

I think that explains why LaFleur says he’s tired of answering questions about Love’s interceptions. He’d rather have Love pushing the ball and taking chances than trying to find the perfect play and ending up with nothing. The Love he has on his hands now is a player who’s doing just what he was asked: cutting loose and letting it fly.

The Packers say they’d rather have that than the alternative, and I agree with them. Love’s picks are largely explainable circumstantially and they’re acceptable strategically if they come from a place of aggression and playmaking. If that’s the price of the Love experience, I’m good with it.