Is the Packers' Strategy at Wide Receiver Actually Smart?
Romeo Doubs is one of a few wide receivers who figures to have a big role in 2022.
Recently, a Blue 58 listener sent in this question:
The importance given to having an elite player at the running back position has declined throughout much of the NFL in recent years and many teams operate the position by platoon. Contracts for running backs largely reflect this as does the much-quoted maxim of "don't pay running backs."
The wide receiver market has ballooned this offseason with several receivers commanding salaries that almost approach quarterback numbers. The entire Packers receiver room's salaries, by comparison, combine for only a fraction of the money paid by one of these top market contracts. This has allowed the Packers to sign multiple veterans at positions like inside linebacker, defensive line, and cornerback that they likely would not have been able to if they had used 30+ million of salary cap space on a single receiver.
Do you think it's possible that we are seeing an over inflation in the wide receiver market and that a possible future trend, similar to what has happened with the running back position, could be the receiver position played by platoon with a number of smaller contracts and less emphasis on an elite WR1? If so, could the Packers' approach to their receiver room this year be an indication of the start of that trend?
This is a great question to explore as it pertains to the 2022 Packers because it touches on a lot of their roster-building practices past and present. Let’s dive in.
First, it’s important to understand that the Packers may not be here intentionally. I doubt very much that their plan was to time some kind of market trend rewarding teams that build around cheap receivers. All reports indicate they’d have been more than happy to sign Davante Adams to a contract even more lucrative than the one he ultimately signed with the Raiders. If they’ve ended up with a receiving room built around a bunch of small contracts, it probably wasn’t their plan all along.
I think that position is bolstered by their draft history. Since they drafted Davante Adams in 2014, the only other noteworthy investments the Packers have made at wide receiver prior to this spring were Ty Montgomery and Amari Rodgers, both third-round picks. Players like Tyler Davis, J’Mon Moore, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Equanimeous St. Brown should be understood more as athletic lottery tickets than serious investments in the position, as evidenced by the hit rate. If the Packers had intended to build around cheap receivers, they sure waited until the very last possible instant to start doing so.
But that doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea, at least not by itself. After all, young receivers are contributing to offenses earlier than ever before, and as our questioner points out, the top end of the receiver market is more expensive than ever. So, can you build an effective offense around a bunch of them at once?
Well, unfortunately, it doesn’t look that way. Or, at least, if it’s possible, nobody’s doing it right now.
Top passing offenses are built around the top receivers
For a look at how the top passing offenses are built, I looked at the top 10 passing offenses as ranked by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric for each of the past five years — fifty different elite passing offenses.
I found that the majority had a receiver who also showed up among Football Outsiders’ top receivers by Defense Adjusted Yards ABove Replacement (DYAR), the figure they use for judging overall wide receiver productivity. 29 of 50 offenses had a wide receiver ranked in the top 10 in the corresponding year, and another 12 had receivers ranked in the top 20.
Here’s how we can visualize that: the teams in green in the chart below had a top-10 DYAR receiver. The teams in yellow had a receiver in the top 10. The teams in red didn’t have a receiver who ranked in the top 20 or better.
Now, you’ll quickly notice that nine of these 50 offenses didn’t have a receiver in the top 10 or top 20. That’s noteworthy, but we can quickly explain most of it away. The 2021 Bills, for instance, had Stefon Diggs, who finished 21st in DYAR. Most of the rest of the teams, meanwhile, featured elite tight ends — Rob Gronkowski on the 2017 and 2018 Patriots, and Mark Andrews and George Kittle on the 2019 Ravens and 49ers, respectively, account for another four elite offenses.
In light of that, I think it’s safe to say that you’re still probably going to need at least one elite pass catcher to have an elite passing offense.
What does this mean for the Packers’ wide receivers?
The Packers probably aren’t trying to just recreate Adams’ effectiveness by having a bunch of good options on the field together. Their long-term hope (heck, their short-term hope) is almost certainly that one of their draft picks turns out to be another elite pass catcher. They’re likely not going to be able to ever have enough effective players on their roster together to create an effective platoon, and given the opportunity, they’ll probably end up paying Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs or both.
But as far as that short-term situation goes, I think there is some hope on that chart above. The 2017 Buccaneers didn’t have one overwhelmingly great wide receiver, but six different players racked up at least 400 receiving yards. I think that can be a winning approach, but as far as a long-term strategy goes, it’s probably not sustainable.