Packers' 2015 Passing Performance Proves Proficient Potential
When I was in school, group projects were a boom or bust proposition. If you were able to surround yourself with the right classmates, everything was easier.
While the classmates were mostly the same for the Packers on offense in 2015, the chemistry didn’t work out to the naked eye. The 2015 Packers struggled to find consistency on offense, though very little had changed from 2014.
The obvious difference in the passing game was the injury to star wide receiver Jordy Nelson. Let’s dig into the big play data and discover how the Packers can improve in the passing game in 2016.
Just how big of an offensive drop was 2015?
James Jones and the 2015 Packers offense finished second in the NFL with 39 receptions over 25 yards.
Though many considered the Packers offense last year to have performed subpar, Green Bay still finished seventh in the league in big plays.
What counts as a big play? Using data provided by SportingCharts, a ‘big play’ is a rushing attempt over 10 yards or a passing play over 25 yards. Over their 1,056 offensive snaps, the Packers had 92 big plays.
Compared to 2014, Green Bay had only 9 fewer big plays in 2015.
Green Bay finished second in the league in big plays through the air (39), trailing only Pittsburgh (43). Overall, the Packers ranked seventh in the NFL with 8.7% of their offensive plays qualifying.
Green Bay averaged 5.5 plays per drive last season. At the rate the offense was racking up big plays, the Packers were either ripping off a 10+ yard run or 25+ yard pass every other drive.
13 of their 42 touchdowns in 2015 were scored on big plays – two rushes by James Starks, one run and ten passes by Aaron Rodgers.
Aaron Rodgers is made better by Jordy Nelson
Jordy Nelson makes life easier for Aaron Rodgers. He returns to the Packers offense this year after rehabbing a torn ACL. In 2014, Nelson set a career-high in receiving yards (1,519). He also posted his second career season with double digit touchdown receptions (13).
The Packers tried to replace Nelson with free agent James Jones, but Jones couldn’t come close to matching Nelson’s productivity.
When Aaron Rodgers threw towards Jordy Nelson in 2014, the star quarterback had a passer rating of 124.0 out of 158.3.
Compare Rodgers’ numbers when throwing to Nelson in 2014 against throwing to Jones in 2015:
- Rodgers to Jordy Nelson in 2014: 98-151, 1519 yards, 13 touchdowns, 1 interception, 10.1 yards per attempt, 124.0 passer rating
- Rodgers to James Jones in 2015: 50-99, 890 yards, 8 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 9.0 yards per attempt, 87.5 passer rating
While Jones had a nice bounce-back season after a tough 2014 with Oakland, Nelson’s numbers stand head and shoulders above.
Comparing an elite wide receiver in his prime with the 31-year-old Jones isn’t exactly fair, however. If we expand the criteria for 2015 to include slot receiver Randall Cobb, the numbers appear a bit more favorable:
- Rodgers to Jordy Nelson in 2014: 98-151, 1519 yards, 13 touchdowns, 1 interception, 10.1 yards per attempt, 124.0 passer rating
- Rodgers to James Jones and Randall Cobb, 2015: 129-228, 1719 yards, 14 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, 7.5 yards per attempt, 91.9 quarterback rating
Statistically, it took both of the Packers’ starting receivers to replace the production of Nelson last season. Davante Adams’ sophomore slump and nominal production from the tight end position only exacerbated the offensive woes from the passing game. Despite these constraints, the Packers still had an explosive offense.
The Packers in 2015 had to find new ways to generate big plays without Jordy Nelson. Now that Nelson has returned, a healthy Green Bay offense may be even tougher to defend than before.