Parsing Adam Schefter's Report on Aaron Rodgers

Adam Schefter broke some Aaron Rodgers news recently, throwing out a report on Sunday morning indicating the Packers might be open to trading Aaron Rodgers.

Or, they’ve thought about it. Or maybe it’s that they know they can. When you actually sit down and read what Schefter wrote, it’s kind of confusing. And you should read it! Here’s a link so you can give ESPN a click as payment for me doling it out below.

The entire thing is so sparse in its information that the intention becomes very clear. ESPN wanted to give people a reason to tune into their programming on the morning of the AFC and NFC Championship games. ESPN doesn’t have the rights to those broadcasts, so unless someone is saying particularly interesting, there’s no reason to tune in. So here comes Schefter, ready to say something interesting whether he has anything to say or not.

Let’s take a look at this report, point by point, and see if we can determine anything about how this particular piece of content sausage was made.

The actual information in Schefter’s report

An offseason trade of Aaron Rodgers remains an option for the Green Bay Packers for a variety of reasons, league sources told ESPN.

This is new information. Well, sort of. The new part here is that, apparently, multiple league sources have weighed in on the Packers and Rodgers. It’s not new, or even particularly noteworthy, that trading Rodgers is an option. It always has been!

A scenario that once seemed unthinkable, a Rodgers trade could be driven by financial reasons, the state of the Packers franchise and ultimately the feelings of the team and the star quarterback.

There’s literally no actual information in this paragraph, he’s just setting up what comes next. And is it really unthinkable? Schefter himself dropped massive Rodgers news on the first day of the 2021 NFL Draft nearly two years ago, at which point Rodgers’ contract was much more movable than it is now. What makes it unthinkable other than his assertion that it is?

League sources believe the franchise prefers to move on from Rodgers, just as it once did with Brett Favre. Those sources also believe that Rodgers is well aware of the Packers' feelings on the situation.

Here’s some actual meat. People Schefter has talked to believe the Packers want to move from Rodgers to Jordan Love. How do they know this? It’s not clear, and Schefter wouldn’t tell us even if he did (unless he had intel that the Packers had made an offer or something). But league sources think there’s something to the idea.

It’s not really new or noteworthy that Rodgers knows this, though. Of course he does. A central point of his beef with the Packers in 2021 was that they needed to communicate with him more, and he’s said since then that they have. Surely he knows how they’re feeling right now.

Here comes the filler

Rodgers said during an interview this past week with "The Pat McAfee Show" that he is "open to all honest and direct conversations" with the Packers and that a trade "wouldn't offend me, and it wouldn't make me feel like a victim."

Here’s where the piece turns. Schefter has moved from reporting to repeating, throwing chum in the water to support his point. That’s fair; if there is additional evidence, it should be considered. But look at how this paragraph fits with the next two or three:

Rodgers also noted in the interview that a possible trade, at this point, is "conjecture" until he decides what he wants to do "moving forward for myself."

But regardless of Rodgers' decision, changes are coming to Green Bay -- it's just a matter of how extensive they will be. Rodgers himself quipped during the interview: "Is it a reload or a rebuild?"

Schefter is again just summarizing points Rodgers made on Pat McAfee’s show. This isn’t reporting so much as just aggregating things already out in the public eye.

The Packers currently are projected to be more than $16 million over next season's salary cap and have a list of impending free agents that includes some of Rodgers' closest friends on the team: Randall Cobb, Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Allen Lazard and Mason Crosby.

Aaron Jones also is slated to have a cap number of $20 million, and the Packers could save $10.4 million against the cap if they were to cut or trade the star running back. Green Bay also could save $16 million if it designated Jones as a post-June 1 cut.

Schefter is just working on the same point here, but it’s worth noting that he does a couple of things you often see from people who know they have weak arguments: he makes a list with a bunch of items on it and he throws out some big numbers.

First, he lists some guys the Packers may not have next year. It sounds bad that the Packers might move on from five of Rodgers’ friends, but just look at the list. You have Randall Cobb, who turns 33 in August and might retire on his own. Marcedes Lewis is in the same boat, but he’s probably back in Green Bay next year if he wants to play simply because he’s not an expensive player. Robert Tonyan is probably in a similar boat. Allen Lazard already has one (or both!) feet out the door. Mason Crosby is openly contemplating retirement. It’s not like these are really core members of the Packers, and even before this article came out, Rodgers said that he wouldn’t have to have all or any of these guys back to return himself.

Then there’s Aaron Jones. Again, this is publicly available information. Schefter isn’t telling us anything we don’t already know. It’s true that Jones’ cap number is big next year, but if the Packers wanted to, they could make most of that number disappear. If they want to keep him, it’s not a big deal for their 2023 cap. They can do it easily.

So this is a Packers franchise at a crossroads -- no more so than at quarterback, where Rodgers is due $59.5 million in guaranteed money this year and another $49.25 million in 2024.

Again Schefter throws out some big numbers. And, to be fair, they are big! But here’s the rub: they don’t matter. It’s true that somebody is going to have to pay Rodgers, but what Rodgers gets paid and how it affects the team’s cap are two very different things, and they’re different to the extent that the former barely matters at all. Whoever ends up with Rodgers for 2023 will pay him the same way every other NFL player gets paid: with money from the league’s revenue sharing deal. Their only consideration is how they fit things under the cap, and Schefter clears that up in the next few paragraphs:

The Packers used a very complex contract structure with Rodgers when the sides agreed on an extension last offseason. Of the guaranteed money owed to Rodgers in 2023, $58.3 million of it is structured as an option bonus. The window to exercise that option is from the first day of the new league year (March 15) until one day before Green Bay's regular-season opener in September.

By including that option bonus in Rodgers' contract, both sides have more than enough time to find a trade partner. Once the option is exercised, Rodgers' cap number for 2023 would be $31,623,570.

While Rodgers is due close to $110 million in guaranteed money over the next two years -- money he is not expected to walk away from -- the Packers also have to decide on quarterback Jordan Love's fifth-year option that would be worth roughly $20 million fully guaranteed by May 1.

Love flashed in mop-up action in a game against Philadelphia this past season, completing 6 of 9 passes for 113 yards and a touchdown.

Since we know that the cap figure is all that matters, most of this is just filler. Yes, Rodgers is going to get paid a lot, but from a roster construction standpoint, that doesn’t really matter for the acquiring team.

Love’s fifth-year option matters, too, but this has been well covered by other outlets and isn’t new. It’s also worth noting that Brian Gutekunst has spoken on this directly on multiple occasions, but Schefter doesn’t include any quotes from the Packers’ general manager here.

"They drafted my replacement, and if I didn't win two COVID MVPs, this conversation probably would've happened earlier," Rodgers said during the interview Tuesday. "But in a year where I'm not going to win MVP, it allows for all the different conjectures of if Jordan is ready and if it's time to move on."

I’m not really sure what this quote is doing here. Rodgers doesn’t say anything we didn’t already know, and just as importantly, he didn’t say it to Schefter. It’s just another bit from McAfee’s show.

What is Schefter’s opinion?

Rodgers, 39, ultimately has a major voice in what he wants to do in 2023 -- whether that's playing Green Bay or another team, or retirement. At no time during his comments on "The Pat McAfee Show" or to reporters at the end of the season did Rodgers declare he would be back in Green Bay. In fact, his words and actions have demonstrated otherwise.

Here’s another shift from Schefter. He’s not telling us what he’s learned or recounting familiar facts. Now he’s straight up giving you his opinion. It’s possible that Rodgers’ words and actions have demonstrated his plans in one direction, but there are many other readings, too. For instance, here’s what Schefter cites:

Rodgers, who has spent his entire 18-year career with the Packers, was said to be emotional on the field during pregame warmups before Green Bay's season-ending loss at Lambeau Field to the Detroit Lions.

After the game, Rodgers declined Lions rookie wide receiver Jameson Williams' request for his No. 12 jersey, saying "I'm gonna hold on to this one," before walking off the field, looking up at the Lambeau crowd and entering the tunnel with his arm wrapped around Cobb's shoulder.

Said by whom? Emotional in what way? That’s pretty weak, if you ask me, as is Rodgers’ declining to swap jerseys with Jameson Williams, which he’s also addressed elsewhere. Rodgers and Cobb were also both emotional on the field together late in the 2018 season, but both are still playing together. Reading too much into any one action seems like a mistake, especially when this is all the evidence you’ve got.

Rodgers tops a list of quarterbacks facing major offseason questions that includes Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Great stuff, Adam. Thank you for this list of names.

If this situation feels familiar for Green Bay, it should. Favre was 38 years old at the time Green Bay traded him to the New York Jets and was 39 while playing his first season away from the Packers.

This is filler and his editor should have cut it. If you’re trying to say that Rodgers is following Favre’s path out of Green Bay, you should write the story about that. Instead, we get two throwaway mentions.

There would be substantial interest in Rodgers' services across the league should the Packers decide to trade him.

Schefter concludes with this, and it’s borderline infuriating. He apparently has sourced intel on interest in Rodgers around the league. Given the premise of this article, you’d think it’d deserve a little more attention than a single line at the end. What could the Packers stand to get for Rodgers? Who might be interested? When would all this happen? All of that would be interesting! 

Instead, Schefter packages up a small nugget of intel with a whole bunch of filler in the form of quotes from other media sources and publicly available information and uses it to chum the waters ahead of ESPN’s coverage of the NFC and AFC Championship games. It’s not a bad move to get more eyes on your employer’s product, especially when they’re not actually carrying any games.