Predicting Brian Gutekunst's draft picks with one weird trick (GMs hate him)
I don’t think this is unique to Brian Gutekunst, but the Packers’ general manager has an interesting quirk: when he drafts a player, he tends to return to that player’s school to grab one of his teammates within a year or two.
Part of this shouldn’t be surprising: good programs that produce good players should keep producing those good players year after year after year. That the Packers would take one of those good players and then return for another one a year later shouldn’t shock anybody. That’s the goal!
But on the other hand, it’s kind of remarkable how often this has happened.
In 2018, the Packers got Equanimeous St. Brown from Notre Dame and Hunter Bradley from Mississippi State and took Dexter Williams and Elgton Jenkins the next year. In 2019, they got Rashan Gary from Michigan, then took Jon Runyan the next season. In 2020, the Packers took AJ Dillon from Boston college and Ty Summers out of TCU and went back for Isaiah McDuffie and Vernon Scott in 2021. In 2021 and 2022, it was Georgia; first Eric Stokes and then Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt. In 2022, Rasheed Walker arrived from Penn State, and in 2023 Gutekunst grabbed the quarterback he protected: Sean Clifford. And in 2023, the Packers drafted Luke Musgrave out of Oregon State and followed that up by drafting Kitan Oladapo in 2024 in addition to taking Kalen King to make a three-year run of Nittany Lions in Green Bay.
Is this an air-tight way of predicting which prospects the Packers will draft? Not really. It could all be explained by coincidence and happenstance. But just for kicks, here’s a list of all the schools from whom the Packers took players last year along with the list of players available from those schools this year. I’ve ranked them all by where they landed on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board on March 13, 2025 — the day I did my data capture for this year’s draft class.
If history holds true, there’s a good chance at least one of these players will be in Green Bay a little more than two weeks from now.
Arizona (Jordan Morgan)
8 - Tet McMillian (WR)
55 - Jonah Savaiinaea (IOL)
232 - Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)
I’d love for McMillian to end up in Green Bay, but there’s pretty much zero chance the top wide receiver in the draft lasts until 23. Other than that, I think we can rule out Arizona prospects.
Texas A&M (Edgerrin Cooper)
13 - Shemar Stewart (EDGE)
35 - Nick Scourton (EDGE)
81 - Shemar Turner (DL)
The Packers have met with Shemar Stewart and Nick Scourton had good productivity numbers, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see either one come to the Packers. If Stewart’s there at 23, I have to think there’s a good chance he’s their pick.
Georgia (Javon Bullard)
12 - Jalon Walker (EDGE)
15 - Mykel Williams (EDGE)
67 - Tate Ratledge (IOL)
82 - Jared Wilson (IOL)
125 - Smael Mondon Jr. (LB)
132 - Trevor Etienne (RB)
157 - Dylan Fairchild (IOL)
192 - Nazir Stackhouse (DL)
210 - Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (EDGE)
229 - Xavier Truss (OT)
237 - Benjamin Yurosek (TE)
245 - Arian Smith (WR)
249 - Warren Brinson (DL)
It’s a punchline at this point: Gutekunst loves Georgia. Call him Brian Georgiakunst if you like. The real story here is that Georgia has a ton of guys in this year’s class worth considering. By numbers alone, you’d have to think Georgia has a good shot at landing another prospect on the Packers.
USC (MarShawn Lloyd)
219 - Jo'Quavious Marks (RB)
Marks is the only USC prospect on my list, and though he was productive as a receiver, he’s a little undersized (5-foot-10, 207 pounds) and little under-athletic (just a 6.55 RAS) for what Gutekunst usually considers.
Missouri (Ty’Ron Hopper)
9 - Armand Membou (OT)
29 - Luther Burden (WR)
Membou is out of reach and I don’t think the Packers would burn a first on another tackle right now. Meanwhile, they haven’t brought Burden in for a visit (yet), but he’s in the approximate range where the Packers might consider taking a wide receiver.
Oregon (Evan Williams)
30 - Derrick Harmon (DL)
34 - Josh Conerly Jr. (OT)
72 - Jordan Burch (EDGE)
94 - Tez Johnson (WR)
105 - Jamaree Caldwell (DL)
106 - Terrance Ferguson (TE)
126 - Jeffrey Bassa (LB)
131 - Dillon Gabriel (QB)
175 - Ajani Cornelius (OT)
205 - Jordan James (RB)
223 - Jabbar Muhammad (CB)
Derrick Harmon is a popular mock draft target for the Packers, but the interesting one to watch for me is Terrance Ferguson. If I wanted another swing at a Luke Musgrave-esque prospect and he was available early on Day 3, I might take a swing.
Duke (Jacob Monk)
(none)
No Blue Devils worth considering in this year’s class, so Jacob Monk isn’t getting a Duke teammate as a draft pick, though we can’t ever rule anything out as far as undrafted free agents.
Oregon State (Kitan Oladapo)
166 - Joshua Gray (IOL)
It’s a pretty sparse list for Oregon State prospects, but Gray is an interesting one. He’s a little light (just 299 pounds), and while that would normally not disqualify him, the Packers have been trending bigger on the offensive line. Outside of that, he hits their historical thresholds for athletic performance. Might be worth remembering.
Georgia State (Travis Glover)
(none)
No Georgia State prospects in the top 250 this year. Sorry, Travis!
Tulane (Michael Pratt)
194 - Caleb Ransaw (S)
Is he a safety or is he a corner? Whatever he is, Ransaw is an athletic marvel. He ran a 4.33-second 40-yard dash at 197 pounds, posted blistering agility drill times, and broad jumped nearly 11 feet. Can he play? Who knows. But he can run, that’s for sure.
Penn State (Kalen King)
2 - Abdul Carter (EDGE
11 - Tyler Warren (TE)
102 - Kevin Winston Jr. (S)
160 - Jaylen Reed (S)
170 - Kobe King (LB)
I don’t have a hard and fast opinion on anyone on this list. Carter and Warren seem good, but they’re out of the Packers’ range. Winston’s performance numbers are bad and I don’t have testing numbers on King. I’d take Jaylen Reed just for kicks — and then I’d be confusing him and Jayden Reed forever. Worth it for the joke, though!