The pass rush is going to be what sinks the 2024 Packers
I think the 2024 Packers season is functionally over in my mind.
It’s not that the Packers aren’t a good team or that they can’t beat other good teams. It’s that I feel like we’ve “solved” the 2024 Packers.
I feel like we know the Packers better at this point of the season than we knew other recent iterations of the team at the same point. In 2020 and 2021, the Packers were just starting to peak around now, and I don’t know if we’d seen their full power yet.
In 2022, we were wondering if the light would ever flick on for what would turn out to be the last go-round of the Aaron Rodgers era. It kind of did with Christian Watson’s seven-touchdown explosion in November, but ultimately that team never really came together.
In 2023, the Packers were just beginning to roll at this point and they were still pretty far from the team that they would become. They really didn’t hit their stride until Aaron Jones returned from injury down the stretch and turned in the greatest month of his Packers career.
But in 2024, I think we’ve seen the highs and lows of this team. We’ve seen them play well and play poorly, and I think their strengths and weaknesses are pretty well established, so much so that I think if we prognosticate a little bit, we can see this team’s eventual end.
The Packers can put up points with anybody. We’ve seen that in good games and in bad ones. Even in their losses, they’ve moved the ball pretty well. The overall offense wasn’t the problem against Philadelphia; the Packers just bogged down in the red zone (can you imagine!) The offense stumbled early against the Vikings but came alive in the second half and nearly completed the comeback. Against the Lions, the Packers moved the ball well enough but just couldn’t stay out of their own way, especially in the red zone.
Even against the Bears, the Packers’ offense wasn’t on the field much, but when they were, they moved the ball with ease against one of the NFL’s best defenses. But for two odd trips to the red zone, this game should have been a walk. The Packers had four drives of at least 70 yards on Sunday and another that covered more than 60. They had no three and outs. They should have been warming up the bus by the middle of the third quarter, but instead they needed to sweat it out into the game’s final seconds. God bless Karl Brooks and his giant right hand.
The offense isn’t a problem. But the defense is. Specifically, one part of the defense: the pass rush.
The Packers’ pass rush is going to kill this team, either in the regular season or in the playoffs. They simply cannot reliably get to the quarterback, and sooner or later someone is going to shred them because of it.
That’s not to say the defense isn’t much improved over last year. It is. They’re better from a data perspective and a talent perspective. But they cannot get enough pressure on the quarterback to affect a game, and we really haven’t seen them do it once this season except for in the Packers’ win over Tennessee.
I think that game was basically a mirage, too. Yes, the Packers sacked Will Levis a bunch of times, but how many of those came in the regular course of the game versus when the contest was essentially decided and the Titans were throwing out of desperation? How many came because of the Titans’ historically terrible and injury-depleted offensive line? The answer to both questions is “most of them,” and it’s telling the Packers haven’t been able to produce similar production since.
Even this week, when the Packers recorded three sacks, we have to gainsay their performance a bit. Rashan Gary’s sack was nice, but Brenton Cox and T.J. Slaton both collected sacks more by happenstance than individual excellence. Cox came into the backfield unblocked and greeted Caleb Williams just as he turned to face the line of scrimmage on a play-action bootleg, while Slaton more or less just fell on Williams as he stepped up and attempted to scramble on the Bears’ final drive of the game.
And even on that drive, where the Packers recorded two of their three sacks, the pass rush didn’t affect the game enough to matter. Sacking Williams put the Bears behind the sticks, but on 3rd and 18, the Bears collected enough yardage to make their fourth down play manageable partly because the Packers couldn’t speed Williams into a bad throw by rushing only four on 3rd and very long.
A game is coming, perhaps multiple times yet this year, when the Packers will face a team that makes them pay for their lack of pass rush with a monumental passing performance. It’s already hard enough to play pass defense in the NFL, but even the Packers’ revamped secondary is going to get torched by a good quarterback on a competent offense if the Packers can’t get after the passer. Throwing against a team that can’t rush is like playing in a 7-on-7 drill, and a good quarterback with a decent offensive line can just stand back there and pat the ball while he waits for a receiver to uncover. And that’s exactly what I see happening to the Packers.
To make matters worse, the secondary still has some big weak spots. The safety position is much improved, but cornerback is a mess. Jaire Alexander has been living in the “hurt as often as not” portion of his career since 2021, and the options across from him are not encouraging. Eric Stokes seems to have (finally?) been put out to pasture this week, but Carrington Valentine didn’t instill much confidence in his place. Keisean Nixon is a fine enough option, but he looks overexposed in his role and should probably be more of a support player in the secondary. Corey Ballentine can’t get on the field, but he’s a limited player anyway.
If the Packers can’t get it figured out before the playoffs, this is going to be their downfall. I don’t think there’s much they can do to improve things in-season, so we might just be playing a waiting game. Sooner or later, the Packers won’t get enough mistakes from an opposing team to allow their punchless pass rush to go unnoticed, and if (or when) that happens in the playoffs, it’s going to be the end of the 2024 Packers.