Week 7 Preview: Packers Must Avoid Trap Game Against Raiders
The last few offseasons have featured coaching churns so similar they’ve become a punchline: find someone who knows Sean McVay and he’ll fix your offense, then the rest of your team.
While that critique is somewhat tongue in cheek, it’s also largely true. Most of the recent coaching hires have been young, offensive-minded, and conventionally handsome.
Then there’s the Raiders. In need of a coach following the 2017 season, Raiders owner Mark Davis partied like it was…well, somewhere in the early 2000s, re-hiring former Raiders head coach Jon Gruden. And not only did he bring Gruden back, he did so by winning an apparent bidding war against nobody, inking Gruden for the truly bonkers sum of $100 million over 10 years.
Year one of Gruden Era 2.0 in Oakland did not go so well, but in year two, the Raiders are at least respectable so far. They’ve lost to two good teams (Kansas City and Minnesota), beaten a good defense (Chicago), and upset a trendy young team (Indianapolis). Throw in a relatively easy win over the Broncos and you’ve got a 3-2 Raiders team coming to Green Bay spoiling for an upset.
The Packers, themselves off to a better-than-expected start, are coming off a short week and could be tempted to look ahead to next week’s big game in Kansas City. Can they avoid an upset at home?
Raiders’ offense reflecting Gruden’s identity
Jon Gruden wanted to create a team built around hard-nosed play in the trenches, and early returns seem to indicate he’s accomplishing that on offense.
The Raiders have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, ranking highly in both ESPN’s Pass Blocking Win Rate and Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards. In short, they block very well in both the passing and running phases of their offense. We’ll talk more about their running game in our “Player to Watch” section.
Leading that passing offense is Derek Carr, who is enjoying an efficient if not spectacular season, completing more than 73% of his passes so far this year. Carr has thrown just six touchdowns against three picks, but he’s more or less kept his mistakes to a minimum while letting his pass-catchers do the work. And do work they have; more than half of Carr’s passing yards this year have come after the catch.
Oakland’s pass-catching group is led by tight end Darren Waller. An enormous (6-6, 238) converted wide receiver, Waller has exploded this year, catching 37 passes in his fourth season after only managing 18 receptions through his first three seasons.
Waller’s success isn’t much of an outlier for the Raiders, though. Tight ends have posted three of the top for reception totals in Oakland so far this season, and Tyrell Williams, the only wide receiver to break the top four, is expected to be out this week with a Lisfranc injury.
Raiders defense solid, but lacking big plays
Prior to Khalil Mack’s departure, Oakland’s defense was a very solid unit raised to new heights by one of the league’s truly exceptional defensive players. Post-Mack, the defense has remained fairly solid, but there is a noted lack of plays on the ball among this group.
Defensive tackles Johnathan Hankins and Maurice Hurst lead the Raiders front, representing a classic space-eater/three-technique combo that wouldn’t have been at all out of place on any of Gruden’s previous Raiders or Buccaneers teams. The Hankins/Hurst pairing also frees up space for pass rusher Benson Mayowa, who leads the team with 4.5 sacks.
Those sacks are some of the few plays Oakland has made on the ball this year. An interception or pass defensed is a rare sight among the Raiders’ defensive backs, a stark contrast to the ball-hawking Packers secondary.
Player to Watch
Rookie running back Josh Jacobs has been one of the main engines driving the Raiders’ offensive success this season. A rookie out of Alabama, the 5-10, 220-pound Jacobs plays to his burly measurables. According to Pro Football Reference, more than 57% of Jacobs’s rushing yards this year have come after contact; he’s averaging 2.8 yards after contact per carry. Even Aaron Jones, who does plenty of work after being hit, has only managed 33% of his yards after contact this year.
Coupled with a bruising offensive line that’s done plenty of work to spring Jacobs on its own, the Raiders have a running game the Packers must respect, especially given their struggles in that area so far this year.
What happened the last time the Packers and Raiders played?
The Packers and Raiders last met in December 2015, producing a spectacularly ugly and inefficient game. Between them, Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr managed just 480 passing yards on a whopping 86 attempts. Throw in three interceptions, five field goals, and a fullback touchdown run, and you have an extremely forgettable 30-20 Packers win.
Who’s going to win?
This has many of the hallmarks of a classic trap game. The Packers are at home. They’re favored, and should win no matter how much they’re favored by. The Raiders are good, but not particularly great, and the Packers have a huge prime-time game against a much more interesting opponent next week. On top of that, the Packers are coming off an emotional win on a short week, potentially leaving them a bit fatigued in more ways than one.
It wouldn’t at all be surprising to see a bit of a flat Packers team on Sunday. But I don’t think they will. Matt LaFleur and his staff have done a great job of managing the highs and lows of this still-young season, and I think the Packers will be ready to take care of the Raiders.
Packers 27
Raiders 14
Survey results
Voters in our weekly poll have been growing increasingly confident in the team since the Packers’ season-opening win over the Bears. But even in light of that upward trend, we have a uniquely positive bunch of voters this week. To wit: every figure we poll about within the Packers organization has an approval rating above 90 percent. The numbers have never been close to that mark in the season and a half we’ve been tracking approval ratings.
That confidence extends to how our voters feel about the Packers’ chances this week. 92% of voters think the Packers will beat the Raiders.
One Last Thought
After the Packers signed Ryan Grant this week, I couldn’t help but reflect on Ryan Grant’s time in Green Bay. No, not the new one. The original Grant, the one who rushed for 100 yards or more 12 times.
When Grant did well, so did the Packers. Green Bay was 10-2 in Grant’s 12 100-yard efforts, none of which surpassed his 156 yard game against the Raiders in 2007.
Seeing his stat line today feels like looking at a fossil, and not just because of the blurry highlights. Grant touched the ball 31 times that day, a nearly unheard of figure in today’s NFL. Making it all the more unusual is the fact that 29 of his 31 touches were runs, another unheard of number today.
The Packers won handily behind Grant’s strong running, an efficient day from Brett Favre, and two special teams touchdowns by Will Blackmon (one punt return, one fumble recovery). The final? 38-7, a number we can hope to see replicated in the very near future.
