What Analytics Matter for NFL Draft Prospects?
The 40-yard dash is a great example of a commonly cited stat that doesn’t tell the full story.
On the most recent episode of Blue 58, I laid out a handful of analytics worth watching when it comes to NFL Draft prospects.
Given that we’ll be referring to these metrics fairly regularly over the next few weeks leading up to the Draft, I thought it might be worthwhile to put together a glossary of those terms. Here are the stats we’ll be watching and using to evaluate prospects.
Know of any others? Get in touch and we’ll add them to our list.
Quarterbacks
Completion percentage - Simply the raw percentage of passes a player completed in college.
CPOE - Completion Percentage Over Expected, a composite of several factors weighted along with completion percentage. Developed by Josh Hermsmeyer of 538.
QBASE - Quarterback Adjusted Stats and Experience projection system, an effort to factor experience into a quarterback’s collegiate statistical resume. Developed by Football Outsiders.
Running Backs
TD/game - How many total touchdowns a player scored during his college career.
Rushing TD/game - How many rushing touchdowns a player scored per game during his college career.
RAS - Relative Athletic Score, a single number designed to rate a player’s athletic ability relative to his positional peers. Developed by Kent Lee Platte.
Speed score - A metric designed to account for size when running the 40-yard dash. Developed by Bill Barnwell for ESPN and Pro Football Prospectus and popularized by Football Outsiders.
Wide Receivers and Tight Ends
Yards/target - How many yards a player produced on average every time a ball was thrown his way.
Catch rate - How often a player caught passes thrown his way.
Marginal efficiency - How often a player succeeds relative to the average rate of success in a particular situation. Developed by Bill Connelly for SB Nation.
RAS - Relative Athletic Score. Defined above. Athleticism is important for wide receivers and tight ends.
HaSS - Height Adjusted Speed Score, a version of speed score that accounts for a player’s mass while giving bonus points to taller pass catchers, given that height is generally a bonus for people who are having the ball thrown to them.
Defensive Line and EDGE Rushers
RAS - Relative Athletic Score. Defined above. Athleticism is important for these positions
Production Ratio - A measurement of a player’s tackles for loss and sacks versus the number of games he plays. A good EDGE rushing prospect should have a PR over 1.0. A very good prospect should be over 1.5. Rashan Gary’s subpar production ratio score last year was cause for concern.