Why Restructuring Randall Cobb's Contract Isn't Wise
Wide receiver Randall Cobb and his contract have been in the crosshairs recently. After signing a four-year, $40 million contract before the 2015 season, Cobb has not lived up to his expectations based on his breakout 2014 season.
Pro Football Focus graded Cobb as a high quality receiver in 2014, an average receiver in 2015 and above average in 2016. His raw numbers this year are among the worst of his career. His 60 catches are the lowest he’s had in any full season other than his rookie year, as are his four touchdowns.
On the other side, Cobb’s 2016 season was his second best as a pro. According to Pro Football Reference, 42.4 percent of the time, the Packers got a first down or a touchdown when they threw the ball to Randall Cobb, a higher percentage than Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, or Jared Cook.
With about $42 million in cap space as free agency approaches next week, it is unwise to ask Cobb to restructure the final two years on his contract. Here’s why.
Wide receivers in a similar situation as Cobb
Let’s find players in a comparable situation to Cobb, on their second contract of their NFL career and making an average salary within $2 million of Cobb. Here are the receivers that fit that criteria, alongside the year they signed their current deal:
- Keenan Allen, Chargers - $11.3 million (2016)
- Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos - $11 million (2016)
- Tavon Austin, Rams - $10.5 million (2016)
- Randall Cobb, Packers - $10 million (2015)
- Marvin Jones, Lions - $8 million (2016)
- Eric Decker, Jets - $7.25 million (2014)
The challenge with trying to restructure a contract
Compared to his counterparts, there’s a flimsy case that Randall Cobb is worth $9 million annually. If the Packers decide they would like to recoup some of their investment in Cobb going forward, Ted Thompson and the front office has to be willing to release him.
In this proposed negotiation, the leverage is entirely on Cobb’s side. Why?
- Cobb has been incredibly loyal to the Packers throughout his career. When he was a free agent in 2015, NFL.com’s Gregg Rosenthal reported Cobb turned down more money elsewhere to sign with Green Bay.
- If Cobb were to be a free agent, he would instantly be in the first tier of wide receivers alongside Alshon Jeffrey and Terrelle Pryor. At 26 years old, any potential team will likely get Cobb’s athletic prime. (Jeffrey is a year older, and Pryor is two years older than Cobb.)
- This year’s draft class is weak at wide receiver, according to an interview we conducted this week with DraftAnalyst.com’s Tony Pauline.
It doesn’t hurt to ask, until it does.
It’s easy to speculate and casually suggest the Packers should restructure Cobb’s contract because he’s not living up to his end of the deal. However, expecting the receiver to continue to prove his loyalty to the Packers is walking a very fine line.
Because the NFL is the last major sports league to not fully guarantee their contracts, the reported value of a contract often is not the total amount the player will receive as it includes incentives and performance bonuses.
Say Cobb is infuriated by the Packers asking for him to take a pay cut while Green Bay has over $42 million in cap space, and requests he be traded or released. Are you willing to lose Cobb for nothing, or a late round draft pick?
Jordy Nelson played great in his first season after tearing an ACL, but he’s 31 years old. Davante Adams exceeded his expectations, but is entering the final year of his rookie contract. Can you replace Cobb’s production from the combination of Geronimo Allison, Trevor Davis and Jeff Janis next season?
So, let’s say Cobb’s open to restructuring his contract…
You’re now the general manager of the Packers, and you nervously pick up the receiver in your office and dial Cobb’s agent, Jimmy Sexton. After a few minutes of small talk about the Daytona 500, you boldly state, “I want to restructure Randall Cobb’s contract.”
There’s a long pause. Sexton initially rejects your request, but after you twist his arm he agrees to ask Cobb. Two days later, your phone rings with good news. Cobb’s open to restructuring his deal.
As we did before, let’s look at the next tier of receivers who are on their second contract to find a comparable average annual salary:
- Eric Decker, Jets - $7.25 million (2014)
- Mohamed Sanu, Falcons - $6.5 million (2016)
- Golden Tate, Lions - $6.2 million (2014)
- Rishard Matthews, Titans - $5 million (2016)
After negotiations conclude, the two sides agree to lower Cobb’s annual salary to $7 million, a saving the Packers about $3 million. While it’d be nice to get Cobb’s number below Tate, remember: it’s a negotiation.
Congratulations! $3 million is a lot of money. Let’s head to the market and see what $3 million got you in the NFL last season:
- CB Antonio Cromartie, Colts - 1 year, $3 million
- DT Nick Fairley, Saints - 1 year, $3 million
- FS Chris Conte, Buccaneers - 1 year, $3 million
- ILB James Laurinaitis, Saints - 3 years, $8.25 million
- WR Anquan Boldin, Lions - 1 year, $2.75 million
- TE Jared Cook, Packers - 1 year, $2.75 million
There’s a lot of good and bad on this list. Both Cook and Boldin played vital roles for the Packers and Lions, and Fairley set a career high with 6.5 sacks as an interior pass rusher. However, Cromartie was released in October when the Colts had the league’s worst pass defense and Pro Football Focus ranked Conte as the league’s 90th best safety.
You may hit the lottery, or it might be a colossal waste of money. Is it worth the risk of losing Cobb to sign a player that may or may not make a difference?
When it makes sense to restructure a contract
A.J. Hawk’s career was on its last legs. The linebacker’s playing time in the Packers defense had begun to decline, and the rich contract Thompson gave Hawk looked more and more like a bad deal.
Outside of Green Bay, Hawk was not held in high regard. If the Packers decided to cut their losses and let the linebacker find another deal elsewhere, Hawk was in no position to make even half as much as his current contract.
The two sides worked harmoniously to find a middle ground where it made sense to keep the linebacker and compensated Hawk fairly.
When he was released the following year, Hawk played for one season in Cincinnati and filled a reserve role. The deal made sense at the time for the Bengals as Hawk played collegiately in nearby Columbus for Ohio State, and the team needed veteran depth at linebacker. Pro Football Focus ranked Hawk as a poor defender in 2015, and he was released shortly after the season.
Should the Packers restructure Randall Cobb’s contract?
Your answer to this question is a good way to test your risk tolerance. Would you be willing to let a second-round pick at wide receiver entering his physical prime go so you could add an extra 8% to your available salary cap this offseason?
If Ted Thompson and the Packers front office will steer clear of high-end free agents like cornerback A.J. Bouye or defensive lineman Calais Campbell with $42 million in cap room, will another $3 million be enough to do so? Probably not.
Over the past three years, here are the four highest paid free agents of each offseason, sorted by average annual salary:
- 2016: QB Brock Osweiler ($18 million), DE Olivier Vernon ($17 million), CB Josh Norman ($15 million), DT Malik Jackson ($14.25 million)
- 2015: DT Ndamukong Suh ($19 million), CB Darrelle Revis ($14 million), WR Jeremy Maclin ($11 million), TE Julius Thomas ($9.2 million)
- 2014: CB Darrelle Revis ($12 million), OLB DeMarcus Ware ($10 million), CB Aqib Talib ($9.5 million), LT Branden Albert ($9.4 million)
Four of those players (Revis, Thomas, Ware and Albert) have been released, traded or were not retained after their contract expired. Others, like Osweiler and Suh, have not quite lived up to their contracts and will likely be on the move soon.
If you’re asking the Packers to go out and spend big money on a high-end free agent, know that there’s a good chance the deal is a bust. If that player does not produce at a high-level, it will affect Green Bay’s ability to both keep their own free agents and bring in value-priced veteran free agents like Jared Cook and Julius Peppers.
Whether you think Randall Cobb is overpaid or not, it’s likely the top two free agent receivers, Alshon Jeffrey and Terrelle Pryor, will fetch an average salary around or above $10 million. Cobb may not receive another four-year, $40 million contract, but will sign a similar deal on the open market this offseason.