Five Thoughts on Christian Kirksey
The Packers opened the pre-free agency period with a flash, inking a deal with former Cleveland Browns linebacker Christian Kirksey.
Kirksey, a 2014 third-round pick, was released by the Browns late last week and landed in Green Bay after a free agent tour that included, among others, the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders connection seems worth mentioning because they ended up signing Nick Kwiatkoski, another linebacker thought to be a potential Packers target.
Signing Kirksey all but assured Blake Martinez is on the way out in Green Bay, and the former Packers fourth round pick ended up with the Giants late Monday night. But there’s more to the deal than just the Martinez-related ramifications. Here are five thoughts on new Packers linebacker Christian Kirksey.
1 - Kirksey’s contract numbers look good
Initial reports had Kirksey’s contract hovering somewhere around $16 million over two years, but the final details put Kirksey’s deal closer to $13 million over two years. As noted by Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle, the contract relies heavily on roster-based incentives, meaning the more Kirksey plays, the more of his total contract value he can realize.
Additionally, the Packers seem to have an easy out after this season. Should things go sideways or Kirksey’s injuries recur, the Packers will be able to get out of his contract with little in the way of long-term salary cap damage.
And even if the Packers do cut him after a year, he’s risk-free in another way. Since Kirksey was cut by the Browns, he won’t factor into the Packers’ compensatory pick formulations for next offseason. Whatever they get won’t be affected by this signing.
Kirksey provides an affordable option in what could be an expensive free agent class. Sure, he’s not likely to solve all the Packers’ issues at linebacker, but it’s a step in the right direction — and a very low impact one, at that.
2 - Signing Kirksey now relieves some pressure in the draft
Make no mistake: the Packers still have work to do at linebacker. Even with Kirksey in the fold, they still need a more run-oriented sidekick for their new starter. But having Kirksey means the Packers won’t have to go linebacker hunting, especially not early.
Should one of the top-end linebacker prospects fall to the Packers at 30, they could still jump. But Kirksey means they won’t have to. They can easily pick a less highly regarded prospect later, knowing that there’s a veteran presence he can learn alongside.
3 - Kirksey’s injuries may not be that big of a deal
Of course, a big reason Kirksey was available at all was that he hasn’t been able to stay on the field for the last two seasons. He’s played in just nine games since 2017, including just two last year. Given how injuries have gutted the Packers defense in the past, it’s fair to wonder if this could be more of the same.
If there’s a silver lining, though, it’s that Kirksey doesn’t appear to have had any serious recurring injuries. When he’s been hurt, it’s been one-and-done issues, though they’ve been serious enough to keep him off the field for 21 games since 2018.
In addition, the Packers got a chance to meet with Kirksey prior to the travel restrictions that will affect free agency this year, and presumably, their staff got a chance to check him out. If Pat McKenzie is good with his injury situation, that’s good enough for me.
4 - Kirksey should give the Packers an athletic upgrade
On recent episodes of Blue 58, we’ve been previewing various free agent linebackers. Among the crew we’ve looked at so far, Kirksey ranks the best among Kent Lee Platte’s Relative Athletic Score, a single-number metric that ranks players’ athleticism in comparison to their peers.
Among his merits (and there are more than he’s often given credit for), Blake Martinez was not a great athlete, at least relative to other modern inside linebackers. Kirksey should be an upgrade over Martinez, who struggled to cover tight ends and running backs and lacked the sideline-to-sideline speed necessary to succeed as a three-down linebacker in today’s NFL.
5 - Be wary of Kirksey’s coverage skills
Now, despite Kirksey’s athleticism, he shouldn’t necessarily be penciled in as a solution to the Packers’ woes covering the middle of the field. Though he’s rarely been tasked with primary coverage responsibilities, Kirksey’s results when he has been in coverage haven’t been great.
Football charting service Sports Information Solution tracks a unique metric called Deserved Catch %. In short, it’s a measure of how often players allow catchable balls in their area of coverage. This is noteworthy because it still dings the defender when a receiver drops a ball in their area.
Anyhow, Kirksey doesn’t fare too well in this metric. Though he’s had limited coverage chances the last two seasons, in 2016 and 2017 he was on the field for more than 1000 snaps. Here are his Deserved Catch ratings in those years:
2017 - 92.0
2016 - 93.9
For comparison, here’s how Blake Martines has fared each of the last four seasons:
2019 - 94.4
2018 - 93.8
2017 - 87.2
2016 - 76.2
Obviously, it’s foolish to hang an opinion of a player’s skills on one number, and I’d never ask you to do that. However, I think it’s fair to have questions about how big of an improvement Kirksey will be over Martinez in coverage.
The bottom line: signing Christian Kirksey is a depth move more than an upgrade
Kirksey doesn’t solve the Packers’ problems at linebacker, but he doesn’t have to. If he can stay healthy, he provides an affordable athletic upgrade and allows the Packers to focus on other parts of their roster early on in the draft.
