Three Thoughts about Rick Wagner
The second of two Packers free agency splashes, Rick Wagner is in the unique position of getting to return to his home state for what could be the final years of his NFL career.
A West Allis native, Wagner played his college ball at the University of Wisconsin before joining the Baltimore Ravens as a fifth-round draft pick in 2013. He appeared in 62 games for the Ravens over the next four seasons, starting 47, before signing with the Lions in 2018.
Wagner bolsters the right side of the Packers offensive line, which was a trouble spot at times last year. Bryan Bulaga failed to finish four games and missed the Packers’ playoff game against the Seahawks due to injury, and things were a bit unsettled behind him, with Alex Light doing what he could before the Packers were gifted a freshly unretired Jared Veldheer.
With Bulaga now apparently on the way out the door, Wagner should at least be a stopgap option before the Packers make additional long-term improvements at right tackle. Here are three thoughts about the Packers’ newest offensive lineman.
1 - Wagner’s contract is very affordable
Starting offensive linemen don’t come cheap, but Wagner gets pretty close (assuming he starts). His two-year, $11 million deal puts him at 13th in the league among right tackles in average annual value, and most of the big money linemen haven’t even signed yet. It’s likely that ranking will be pushed down even further.
What’s more, Wagner’s contract puts the Packers in the driver’s seat. If Wagner falters this year or if the Packers draft a suitable replacement, the Packers can move on with very little lasting cap damage. And like Christian Kirksey, since Wagner was released by the Lions, he doesn’t factor into the Packers’ compensatory picks calculations.
2 - He’s struggled recently, but has been roughly comparable to Bulaga (and maybe better?)
Steady and reliable with the Ravens, Wagner gave up significantly more sacks as a member of the Lions. However, putting his performance in context, he might not be that much of a downgrade from Bryan Bulaga.
In 2019, I started tracking the number of sacks and penalties Packers offensive linemen give up and averaged them out over 65 snaps to see how often a player produced a significant bad play in a typical game, figuring most NFL games have about 65 snaps.
Last season, Bryan Bulaga had one of the finest seasons of his career, and gave up just .61 penalties and sacks per 65 snaps. Wagner was just a hair worse than that, allowing .69.
But over the last four years, Wagner has been better than Bulaga three times. This graph shows how he stacks up against both Bulaga and David Bakhtiari, with lower figures representing more success.
As with Christian Kirksey, I wouldn’t ask you to hang all your feelings about a player on one number, but this is one metric that shows Wagner is at least in the same ballpark as Bulaga.
3 - He’s a buffer against draft overreach
Perhaps most importantly, having Wagner in the fold means the Packers don’t have a screaming need for an offensive lineman in the draft. Had they gone into the 2020 Draft with Bulaga off to greener pastures and no imminent replacement for him, it would have been hard to pass up whatever prospect was available at 30. Wagner gives the Packers the chance to truly draft the best available player, absolving them of the need to draft for, well, need.
Bottom line - Wagner gives the Packers options on the offensive line
Ultimately, Wagner gives the Packers something every team wants: options. He can be their starting right tackle, but he doesn’t have to be. He gives them someone who’s more than a warm body to slot in as Bulaga’s replacement, or he can slide into a backup spot and not break the bank. Either way, the Packers have a measure of stability on the right side of their offensive line.
